luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Chargers at 49ers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Chargers 22–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:01 left): R. Gould made 20-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 16
San Francisco 49ers 22

November 13, 2022 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −8.5

Luck index +16 49ers about even · −16 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 2, 49ers win 8.

  1. 1 LAC 27 SF 16
  2. 2 LAC 26 SF 23
  3. 3 LAC 15 SF 17
  4. 4 LAC 16 SF 20
  5. 5 LAC 19 SF 26
  6. 6 LAC 6 SF 17
  7. 7 LAC 24 SF 38
  8. 8 LAC 20 SF 37
  9. 9 LAC 10 SF 31
  10. 10 LAC 13 SF 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 16% of them, 49ers 84%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+1.5%
Chargers by 9–164.6%
Chargers by 1–89.9%
Level after regulation2.2%
49ers by 1–826.9%
49ers by 9–1621.9%
49ers by 17+33.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • C. Dicker, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Dicker, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Gould, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:33 The 49ers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q3 9:00 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedB. Aiyuk dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 48 catchable balls before this +9% LAC SF: Field goal
3 Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% LAC LAC: Punt
4 Q4 12:36 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:25 The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:22 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% SF LAC: Turnover
7 Q4 1:01 R. Gould made 20-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +16% LAC SF: End of game
8 Q4 0:53 The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +9% SF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Samson Ebukam (SF DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
  • J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 1% · 49ers 99%

Final margin
49ers by 6
Luck in points
2.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 16% · 49ers 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Chargers · 49ers

More from Week 10 2022