Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022
Chargers at 49ers, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Chargers 22–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:25 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 16 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 22 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 49ers about even · −8 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 1, 49ers win 9.
- 1 LAC 15 SF 10
- 2 LAC 7 SF 9
- 3 LAC 16 SF 20
- 4 LAC 16 SF 23
- 5 LAC 7 SF 16
- 6 LAC 23 SF 34
- 7 LAC 20 SF 34
- 8 LAC 9 SF 27
- 9 LAC 22 SF 45
- 10 LAC 2 SF 34
Your call
Did the 49ers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 8% of them, 49ers 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 0.3% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 5.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.7% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 24.6% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 48.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Dicker, 47 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Dicker, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Dicker, 40 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Gould, 26 yds made · 97% expected
- R. Gould, 20 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Chargers 1 for 5 yards, 49ers 5 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:02 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 5:55 | Delay of Game on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:38 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deommodore Lenoir), 17 yards | +5% LAC +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:38 | Disqualification on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 15 yards | +4% LAC +1.4 pts |
| Q3 8:52 | Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Charles Omenihu), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q4 13:37 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% LAC +1.5 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 20% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 5:33 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:48 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +7% LAC | SF: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 9:00 | B. Aiyuk dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 48 catchable balls before this | +8% LAC | SF: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 13:37 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% LAC | LAC: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:36 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 8:25 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +11% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 4:34 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +7% SF | SF: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:53 | The Chargers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws | +10% SF | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Arik Armstead (SF DE), out · 0.5 pts
- Samson Ebukam (SF DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Rashawn Slater (LAC T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out · 0.8 pts
- J.C. Jackson (LAC CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Joey Bosa (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Dustin Hopkins (LAC K), out · 0.3 pts
- Austin Johnson (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 1% · 49ers 99%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 6
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 9.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 8% · 49ers 92% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · 
Chargers · 
49ers
More from Week 10 2022
- Falcons at Panthers CAR 25–15 · replay 34% for the winner
- Seahawks vs Buccaneers TB 21–16 · replay 41% for the winner
- Browns at Dolphins MIA 39–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Broncos at Titans TEN 17–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Lions at Bears DET 31–30 · replay 57% for the winner
- Texans at Giants NYG 24–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Chiefs KC 27–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Bills MIN 33–30 · replay 14% for the winner
- Saints at Steelers PIT 20–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Colts at Raiders IND 25–20 · replay 65% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams ARI 27–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cowboys at Packers GB 31–28 · replay 56% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles WAS 32–21 · replay 49% for the winner