luckadjusted

Week 10 2022 · November 13, 2022

Texans at Giants, Week 10 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Texans 24–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.4 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Giants were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:01 left): Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Houston Texans 16
New York Giants 24

November 13, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Giants −5.5

Luck index +10 Giants about even · −10 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 1, Giants win 9.

  1. 1 HOU 23 NYG 15
  2. 2 HOU 31 NYG 33
  3. 3 HOU 28 NYG 33
  4. 4 HOU 30 NYG 38
  5. 5 HOU 17 NYG 28
  6. 6 HOU 17 NYG 31
  7. 7 HOU 20 NYG 37
  8. 8 HOU 10 NYG 31
  9. 9 HOU 14 NYG 39
  10. 10 HOU 13 NYG 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 10% of them, Giants 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+0.9%
Texans by 9–162.1%
Texans by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation2.1%
Giants by 1–815.8%
Giants by 9–1620.6%
Giants by 17+52.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:37 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedC. Moore dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +8% NYG HOU: Field goal
2 Q2 1:41 K. Golladay dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 4 catchable balls before this +5% HOU NYG: Punt
3 Q3 12:46 The Giants converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +14% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q3 7:06 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:45 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:17 The Texans fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYG HOU: Turnover
7 Q4 10:36 N. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 21 catchable balls before this +5% NYG HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 10:01 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% NYG NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Daniel Bellinger (NYG TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Aaron Robinson (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jonathan Greenard (HOU DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brevin Jordan (HOU TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 16% · Giants 84%

Final margin
Giants by 8
Luck in points
0.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 10% · Giants 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2022 games · Texans · Giants

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