2022 season · final

Houston Texans, 2022: game by game

The Texans went 3–13–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 2.8 wins. Luck added 0.7: the 11th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6–1.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Colts	T 20–20	43%	+7
Week 2	@ Broncos	L 9–16	5%	−5
Week 3	@ Bears	L 20–23	32%	−32
Week 4	vs Chargers	L 24–34	12%	−12
Week 5	@ Jaguars	W 13–6	28%	+72
Week 7	@ Raiders	L 20–38	12%	−12
Week 8	vs Titans	L 10–17	2%	−2
Week 9	vs Eagles	L 17–29	11%	−11
Week 10	@ Giants	L 16–24	6%	−6
Week 11	vs Commanders	L 10–23	17%	−17
Week 12	@ Dolphins	L 15–30	1%	−1
Week 13	vs Browns	L 14–27	16%	−16
Week 14	@ Cowboys	L 23–27	20%	−20
Week 15	vs Chiefs	L 24–30	1%	−1
Week 16	@ Titans	W 19–14	35%	+65
Week 17	vs Jaguars	L 3–31	16%	−16
Week 18	@ Colts	W 32–31	25%	+75

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +7 vs IND

Wk 2 −5 @ DEN

Wk 3 −32 @ CHI

Wk 4 −12 vs LAC

Wk 5 +72 @ JAX

Wk 7 −12 @ LV

Wk 8 −2 vs TEN

Wk 9 −11 vs PHI

Wk 10 −6 @ NYG

Wk 11 −17 vs WAS

Wk 12 −1 @ MIA

Wk 13 −16 vs CLE

Wk 14 −20 @ DAL

Wk 15 −1 vs KC

Wk 16 +65 @ TEN

Wk 17 −16 vs JAX

Wk 18 +75 @ IND

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Drops	+0.53	+23.2
Kicks	+0.43	+8.5
Injuries	+0.38	+11.8
Rest	−0.04	−2.0
3rd & 4th downs	−0.48	−8.0
Fumble bounces	−0.49	−9.8