luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Houston Texans, 2022: game by game

The Texans went 3–13–1 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.1 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–6–1.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Colts T 20–20 50% 0
Week 2 @ Broncos L 9–16 3% −3
Week 3 @ Bears L 20–23 28% −28
Week 4 vs Chargers L 24–34 12% −12
Week 5 @ Jaguars W 13–6 31% +69
Week 7 @ Raiders L 20–38 12% −12
Week 8 vs Titans L 10–17 2% −2
Week 9 vs Eagles L 17–29 23% −23
Week 10 @ Giants L 16–24 10% −10
Week 11 vs Commanders L 10–23 18% −18
Week 12 @ Dolphins L 15–30 1% −1
Week 13 vs Browns L 14–27 18% −18
Week 14 @ Cowboys L 23–27 22% −22
Week 15 vs Chiefs L 24–30 3% −3
Week 16 @ Titans W 19–14 34% +66
Week 17 vs Jaguars L 3–31 17% −17
Week 18 @ Colts W 32–31 25% +75

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Texans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Drops+26.3+1.55
Injuries+14.8+0.87
Kicks+8.6+0.50
Judgment calls+5.5+0.32
Rest−2.0−0.12
Fumble bounces−7.9−0.46
3rd & 4th downs−9.6−0.57