luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Colts at Texans, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Texans and the Colts tied 20–20. Replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (OT, 0:40 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 36 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final (OT)

Indianapolis Colts 20
Houston Texans 20

September 11, 2022 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Colts −7

Luck index +7 Texans about even · −7 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 IND 41 HOU 17
  2. 2 IND 32 HOU 17
  3. 3 IND 39 HOU 27
  4. 4 IND 37 HOU 29
  5. 5 IND 31 HOU 27
  6. 6 IND 32 HOU 30
  7. 7 IND 23 HOU 26
  8. 8 IND 27 HOU 34
  9. 9 IND 18 HOU 30
  10. 10 IND 17 HOU 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 57% of them, Texans 43%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Tie.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+16.7%
Colts by 9–1617.3%
Colts by 1–821.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Texans by 1–818.8%
Texans by 9–1613.2%
Texans by 17+9.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Texans: the final margin was even, without the luck Colts by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 45 yds made · 78% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 42 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 7 for 89 yards, Texans 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 2:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 33 yards +9% HOU +2.8 pts
Q2 1:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.6 pts
Q2 0:48 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q3 12:17 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q3 10:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Colts, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% HOU +1.9 pts
Q3 9:53 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans, 15 yards +4% IND +1.7 pts
Q3 8:23 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Yannick Ngakoue), 15 yards +1% HOU +1.7 pts
Q3 4:38 Running Into the Kicker on the Colts (E.J. Speed), 5 yards +3% HOU +2.4 pts
Q3 2:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts, 21 yards 0% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 14:56 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +1.3 pts
Q4 10:47 Delay of Game on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU 0.0 pts
OT 9:10 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% IND +0.3 pts
OT 1:28 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% IND +0.5 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 99%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 1:27 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +21% IND IND: Punt
2 Q4 1:05 The Colts got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +32% IND IND: Punt
3 Q4 1:01 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% IND IND: Punt
4 OT 9:10 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedFalse Start on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% IND HOU: Punt
5 OT 6:55 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +20% IND IND: Missed field goal
6 OT 6:12 The Colts fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% IND IND: Missed field goal
7 OT 2:00 R. Blankenship missed a 42-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +29% HOU IND: End of game
8 OT 0:40 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +36% IND HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shaquille Leonard (IND LB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 76% · Texans 24%

Final margin
even
Luck in points
5.7 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Colts 57% · Texans 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Colts · Texans

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