luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Steelers at Bengals, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 23–20, but the replays lean toward the Bengals: they take 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 81 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (OT, 3:37 left): E. McPherson missed a 29-yard field goal, worth 25 points of win probability to the Steelers. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:56 left): the Bengals were stopped on 4th & 2.

Final (OT)

Pittsburgh Steelers 23
Cincinnati Bengals 20

September 11, 2022 · Paycor Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7.5

Luck index +78 Steelers very lucky · −78 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 PIT 25 CIN 10
  2. 2 PIT 33 CIN 29
  3. 3 PIT 39 CIN 41
  4. 4 PIT 23 CIN 29
  5. 5 PIT 25 CIN 34
  6. 6 PIT 20 CIN 33
  7. 7 PIT 23 CIN 38
  8. 8 PIT 16 CIN 35
  9. 9 PIT 16 CIN 40
  10. 10 PIT 13 CIN 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 22% of them, Bengals 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+2.5%
Steelers by 9–165.5%
Steelers by 1–812.1%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bengals by 1–822.8%
Bengals by 9–1619.3%
Bengals by 17+36.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.2 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Steelers by 3, without the luck Steelers by 9.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 59 yds made · 62% expected
  • C. Boswell, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • E. McPherson, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • E. McPherson, 29 yds missed · 97% expected
  • C. Boswell, 55 yds missed · 69% expected
  • C. Boswell, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 8 for 59 yards, Bengals 4 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:47 False Start on the Bengals (Hayden Hurst), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PIT +0.5 pts
Q1 4:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 3 yards, wiping out the play +16% CIN +4.9 pts
Q2 9:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Chidobe Awuzie), 2 yards +2% PIT +1.8 pts
Q2 5:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 7 yards +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:27 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q3 1:19 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CIN +1.7 pts
Q4 6:13 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +5% CIN +0.9 pts
Q4 3:48 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 6 yards, wiping out the play +24% CIN +2.5 pts
Q4 1:56 Taunting on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 15 yards +11% PIT +1.3 pts
Q4 0:22 Illegal Use of Hands on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.1 pts
Q4 0:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 6 yards +6% CIN +0.7 pts
OT 8:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Ahkello Witherspoon), 12 yards +7% CIN +0.7 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:52 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +26% PIT CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 4:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2505 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +16% CIN CIN: Turnover
3 Q4 3:48 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 2505 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +24% CIN CIN: Turnover on downs
4 Q4 1:56 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedTaunting on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1186 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +37% PIT CIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:02 The Bengals missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +23% PIT CIN: Missed field goal
6 OT 3:37 The game turned hereE. McPherson missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +25% PIT CIN: Missed field goal
7 OT 0:34 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +17% PIT PIT: Field goal
8 OT 0:05 C. Boswell made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 25 of 30 from 45+ before +30% PIT –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kendrick Green (PIT C), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 90% · Bengals 10%

Final margin
Steelers by 3
Luck in points
6.2 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 9.2
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 22% · Bengals 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Steelers · Bengals

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