Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022
Eagles at Lions, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?
The Eagles beat the Lions 38–35, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.1 points to the Lions.
Before kickoff the Eagles were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:36 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 38 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Eagles about even · −12 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Lions win 1.
- 1 PHI 39 DET 7
- 2 PHI 35 DET 10
- 3 PHI 23 DET 3
- 4 PHI 27 DET 10
- 5 PHI 34 DET 21
- 6 PHI 34 DET 24
- 7 PHI 28 DET 19
- 8 PHI 23 DET 17
- 9 PHI 13 DET 10
- 10 PHI 13 DET 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 88% of them, Lions 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 47.5% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 22.6% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 18.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 6.7% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Lions by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 2.9.
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:43 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% DET | DET: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 13:00 | The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +12% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 10:17 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedOffensive Too Many Men on Field on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% DET | PHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:19 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +7% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 6:36 | The Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams | +17% PHI | DET: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:46 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 3:56 | The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +10% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:21 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +16% PHI | PHI: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jerry Jacobs (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Ifeatu Melifonwu (DET CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tommy Kraemer (DET G), out · 0.2 pts
- Julian Okwara (DET LB), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 39% · Lions 61%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 2.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 88% · Lions 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · 
Eagles · 
Lions
More from Week 1 2022
- Bills at Rams BUF 31–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Ravens at Jets BAL 24–9 · replay 69% for the winner
- Browns at Panthers CLE 26–24 · replay 97% for the winner
- Colts at Texans HOU 20–20 · replay 50% for the winner
- Jaguars at Commanders WAS 28–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins MIA 20–7 · replay 62% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons NO 27–26 · replay 63% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 23–20 · replay 13% for the winner
- 49ers at Bears CHI 19–10 · replay 42% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 23–7 · replay 43% for the winner
- Chiefs at Cardinals KC 44–21 · replay 93% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 24–19 · replay 88% for the winner
- Giants at Titans NYG 21–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Cowboys TB 19–3 · replay 95% for the winner
- Broncos at Seahawks SEA 17–16 · replay 36% for the winner