luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Browns at Panthers, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Panthers 26–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 6.3 points to the Panthers.

An off day for the Panthers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:13 left): C. York made 58-yard field goal, worth 30 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 26
Carolina Panthers 24

September 11, 2022 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +3 Browns about even · −3 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 10, Panthers win 0.

  1. 1 CLE 41 CAR 3
  2. 2 CLE 28 CAR 0
  3. 3 CLE 34 CAR 10
  4. 4 CLE 20 CAR 0
  5. 5 CLE 17 CAR 0
  6. 6 CLE 25 CAR 10
  7. 7 CLE 27 CAR 14
  8. 8 CLE 17 CAR 7
  9. 9 CLE 23 CAR 16
  10. 10 CLE 17 CAR 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Panthers

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Browns they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

51 points apart for the Panthers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.01 +0.12 worse by 0.11
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.07 better by 0.00
Panthers offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.05 better by 0.02
Panthers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.01 +0.07 better by 0.06

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 97% of them, Panthers 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+77.1%
Browns by 9–1613.9%
Browns by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Panthers by 1–81.5%
Panthers by 9–160.5%
Panthers by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. York, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. York, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. York, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. York, 58 yds made · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:20 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% CAR CLE: Punt
2 Q1 8:46 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Ian Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1783 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +8% CLE CLE: Punt
3 Q1 0:35 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers, 7 yardsJudgment calls +10% CLE CAR: Punt
4 Q2 11:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 34 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 903 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +22% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 14:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 1:36 Horse Collar Tackle on the Browns (John Johnson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 2655 snaps before, position avg 1 per 548 +13% CAR CAR: Field goal
7 Q4 1:27 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CAR CAR: Field goal
8 Q4 0:13 C. York made 58-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +30% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zane Gonzalez (CAR K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 44% · Panthers 56%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
3.8 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 97% · Panthers 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Browns · Panthers

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