luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Saints at Falcons, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Falcons 27–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Saints were 67% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:23 left): W. Lutz made a 51-yard field goal, worth 20 points of win probability to the Saints. The biggest single swing (Q4, 0:02 left): Y. Koo had a 63-yard field goal blocked.

Final

New Orleans Saints 27
Atlanta Falcons 26

September 11, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Saints −6

Luck index +35 Saints lucky · −35 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Falcons win 3.

  1. 1 NO 44 ATL 17
  2. 2 NO 41 ATL 23
  3. 3 NO 24 ATL 10
  4. 4 NO 41 ATL 31
  5. 5 NO 17 ATL 10
  6. 6 NO 31 ATL 27
  7. 7 NO 30 ATL 28
  8. 8 NO 20 ATL 23
  9. 9 NO 23 ATL 33
  10. 10 NO 23 ATL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 65% of them, Falcons 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+20.3%
Saints by 9–1618.5%
Saints by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation2.2%
Falcons by 1–816.9%
Falcons by 9–1610.2%
Falcons by 17+7.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Saints by 1, without the luck Saints by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 74% expected
  • W. Lutz, 44 yds missed · 84% expected
  • Y. Koo, 50 yds made · 78% expected
  • Y. Koo, 40 yds made · 91% expected
  • W. Lutz, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • Y. Koo, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • Y. Koo, 63 yds blocked · 50% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 8 for 99 yards, Falcons 8 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:44 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q1 2:03 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Payton Turner), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.4 pts
Q2 8:42 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +3% NO +1.2 pts
Q2 6:12 Defensive Offside on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q2 3:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Pete Werner), 15 yards +4% ATL +1.8 pts
Q3 6:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Maye), 39 yards +7% ATL +2.8 pts
Q3 1:41 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% NO +1.6 pts
Q3 1:21 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Justin Evans), 5 yards 0% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 12:55 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 7:12 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q4 4:11 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Adetokunbo Ogundeji), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.5 pts
Q4 1:59 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 5 yards +5% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 0:54 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +8% NO +0.9 pts
Q4 0:54 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.2 pts
Q4 0:38 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Jameis Winston), 10 yards +12% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 0:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 15 yards +14% ATL +1.5 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:46 W. Lutz missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him +10% ATL NO: Punt
2 Q2 1:14 K. Pitts dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +9% NO ATL: Field goal
3 Q4 3:38 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% ATL NO: Field goal
4 Q4 0:38 Intentional Grounding on the Saints (Jameis Winston), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1554 snaps before, position avg 1 per 697 +12% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
5 Q4 0:23 The game turned hereW. Lutz made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 17 of 24 from 45+ before +20% NO –
6 Q4 0:19 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +36% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:06 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 18 flags in 2898 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +14% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:02 Y. Koo had a 63-yard field goal blockedKicks · 50% expected for him, 28 of 31 from 45+ before +48% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Mayfield (ATL G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tre'Quan Smith (NO WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Vannett (NO TE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 68% · Falcons 32%

Final margin
Saints by 1
Luck in points
2.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Saints 65% · Falcons 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Saints · Falcons

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