luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Patriots at Dolphins, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Patriots 20–7 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.0 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:40 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 20 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New England Patriots 7
Miami Dolphins 20

September 11, 2022 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −3

Luck index +38 Dolphins lucky · −38 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 4, Dolphins win 6.

  1. 1 NE 27 MIA 10
  2. 2 NE 21 MIA 10
  3. 3 NE 19 MIA 12
  4. 4 NE 13 MIA 10
  5. 5 NE 10 MIA 12
  6. 6 NE 9 MIA 13
  7. 7 NE 10 MIA 17
  8. 8 NE 10 MIA 20
  9. 9 NE 13 MIA 27
  10. 10 NE 12 MIA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 38% of them, Dolphins 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+4.7%
Patriots by 9–1612.9%
Patriots by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation2.9%
Dolphins by 1–830.9%
Dolphins by 9–1617.0%
Dolphins by 17+12.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 10.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:05 The Patriots threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% MIA NE: Punt
2 Q1 6:48 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Carl Davis), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 414 snaps before, position avg 1 per 452 +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q1 1:27 The Patriots converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% NE NE: Punt
4 Q2 11:29 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% MIA MIA: Punt
5 Q2 7:40 The Patriots fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +20% MIA NE: Punt
6 Q2 6:47 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% NE NE: Punt
7 Q2 0:24 The Dolphins converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
8 Q3 4:50 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Jones (MIA CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Eric Rowe (MIA SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 5% · Dolphins 95%

Final margin
Dolphins by 13
Luck in points
2.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 38% · Dolphins 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Patriots · Dolphins

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