luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Giants at Titans, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Titans 21–20, but the replays lean toward the Titans: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 55 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Titans were 66% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:04 left): R. Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal, worth 55 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 21
Tennessee Titans 20

September 11, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −5.5

Luck index +64 Giants very lucky · −64 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 4, Titans win 6.

  1. 1 NYG 37 TEN 19
  2. 2 NYG 27 TEN 16
  3. 3 NYG 26 TEN 20
  4. 4 NYG 20 TEN 17
  5. 5 NYG 31 TEN 33
  6. 6 NYG 24 TEN 29
  7. 7 NYG 19 TEN 28
  8. 8 NYG 14 TEN 27
  9. 9 NYG 10 TEN 28
  10. 10 NYG 10 TEN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 36% of them, Titans 64%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+5.3%
Giants by 9–1610.4%
Giants by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Titans by 1–824.5%
Titans by 9–1619.0%
Titans by 17+19.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 1, without the luck Titans by 8.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 8 for 45 yards, Titans 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:17 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q2 9:26 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 0:24 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q3 11:39 Illegal Use of Hands on the Titans, 5 yards 0% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 11:16 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 7:36 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 4:26 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 3:27 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 5 yards +2% TEN +0.7 pts
Q3 3:22 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYG +1.9 pts
Q3 0:42 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 13:05 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 1:06 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% TEN +0.5 pts
Q4 1:06 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.2 pts
Q4 0:41 Defensive Holding on the Giants, 5 yards +7% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 0:29 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards +11% TEN +0.4 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 14:41 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% NYG TEN: Punt
2 Q4 10:38 The Titans fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NYG TEN: Punt
3 Q4 8:55 The Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +8% TEN NYG: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:00 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:06 The Giants’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedIllegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
6 Q4 0:41 Defensive Holding on the Giants, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:29 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 781 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:04 The game turned hereR. Bullock missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 17 of 26 from 45+ before +55% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 8% · Titans 92%

Final margin
Giants by 1
Luck in points
9.1 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 36% · Titans 64% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Giants · Titans

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