luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Giants at Titans, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Titans 21–20, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 7.6 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Titans were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): R. Bullock missed 47-yard field goal, worth 55 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 21
Tennessee Titans 20

September 11, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −5.5

Luck index +53 Giants lucky · −53 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Titans win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 44 TEN 22
  2. 2 NYG 31 TEN 17
  3. 3 NYG 22 TEN 13
  4. 4 NYG 17 TEN 13
  5. 5 NYG 19 TEN 17
  6. 6 NYG 27 TEN 29
  7. 7 NYG 17 TEN 22
  8. 8 NYG 20 TEN 30
  9. 9 NYG 24 TEN 41
  10. 10 NYG 9 TEN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 47% of them, Titans 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+11.3%
Giants by 9–1613.5%
Giants by 1–821.2%
Level after regulation4.7%
Titans by 1–821.5%
Titans by 9–1614.5%
Titans by 17+13.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 8.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Bullock, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 47 yds missed · 74% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 9:44 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedD. Hilliard dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 2 catchable balls before this +8% NYG TEN: Punt
2 Q4 10:38 The Titans fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% NYG TEN: Punt
3 Q4 8:55 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Giants threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +24% TEN NYG: Touchdown
4 Q4 2:00 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:06 The Giants’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedIllegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on the Titans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
6 Q4 0:41 Defensive Holding on the Giants, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:29 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 781 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +11% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:04 R. Bullock missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 17 of 26 from 45+ before +55% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Harold Landry (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Elijah Molden (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Azeez Ojulari (NYG LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 10% · Titans 90%

Final margin
Giants by 1
Luck in points
8.9 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Giants 47% · Titans 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Giants · Titans

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