luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 19–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.6 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:17 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 15 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Dallas Cowboys 3

September 11, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +5 Buccaneers about even · −5 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Cowboys win 1.

  1. 1 TB 35 DAL 3
  2. 2 TB 47 DAL 20
  3. 3 TB 24 DAL 3
  4. 4 TB 33 DAL 16
  5. 5 TB 43 DAL 28
  6. 6 TB 32 DAL 20
  7. 7 TB 17 DAL 7
  8. 8 TB 30 DAL 24
  9. 9 TB 34 DAL 31
  10. 10 TB 20 DAL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 95% of them, Cowboys 5%. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+63.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.7%
Buccaneers by 1–810.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–83.9%
Cowboys by 9–160.9%
Cowboys by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 51 yds made · 68% expected
  • R. Succop, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds missed · 92% expected
  • R. Succop, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Succop, 47 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:35 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:27 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 9:06 B. Maher made 51-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 5 of 12 from 45+ before +7% DAL DAL: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedC. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +10% TB DAL: Punt
5 Q2 8:05 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% DAL TB: Missed field goal
6 Q2 7:34 R. Succop missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% DAL TB: Field goal
7 Q2 7:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +9% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q2 6:17 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +15% TB DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 91% · Cowboys 9%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 16
Luck in points
9.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 95% · Cowboys 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Buccaneers · Cowboys

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