luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2022 · September 11, 2022

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 19–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:31 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Dallas Cowboys 3

September 11, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +5 Buccaneers about even · −5 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Cowboys win 1.

  1. 1 TB 33 DAL 0
  2. 2 TB 45 DAL 20
  3. 3 TB 29 DAL 9
  4. 4 TB 38 DAL 20
  5. 5 TB 30 DAL 16
  6. 6 TB 28 DAL 17
  7. 7 TB 26 DAL 17
  8. 8 TB 24 DAL 19
  9. 9 TB 30 DAL 27
  10. 10 TB 20 DAL 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 95% of them, Cowboys 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+65.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.2%
Buccaneers by 1–88.5%
Level after regulation1.0%
Cowboys by 1–83.5%
Cowboys by 9–160.9%
Cowboys by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 16, without the luck Buccaneers by 11.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Maher, 51 yds made · 67% expected
  • R. Succop, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds missed · 92% expected
  • R. Succop, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Succop, 47 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 5 for 25 yards, Cowboys 10 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:02 False Start on the Buccaneers (Cameron Brate), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q1 4:28 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 1:06 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 7:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% TB +2.7 pts
Q2 3:20 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 12:58 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q3 12:30 Running Into the Kicker on the Cowboys (Tarell Basham), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.1 pts
Q3 10:56 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards +2% TB +1.0 pts
Q3 2:40 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 1:27 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts
Q3 0:31 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% TB +1.6 pts
Q4 7:08 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q4 5:01 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% DAL +1.8 pts
Q4 2:00 Intentional Grounding on the Cowboys, 13 yards 0% TB +1.2 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:35 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:27 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 9:06 B. Maher made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 5 of 12 from 45+ before +8% DAL DAL: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 C. Lamb dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 1 catchable balls before this +7% TB DAL: Punt
5 Q2 7:34 R. Succop missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% DAL TB: Field goal
6 Q2 7:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (CeeDee Lamb), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +9% TB TB: Field goal
7 Q2 6:17 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +5% TB DAL: Punt
8 Q2 4:13 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% DAL TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Jensen (TB C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 99% · Cowboys 1%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 16
Luck in points
4.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 11.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 95% · Cowboys 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Buccaneers · Cowboys

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