luckadjusted

Week 1 2022 · September 12, 2022

Broncos at Seahawks, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Broncos 17–16, but the Broncos played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): B. McManus missed 64-yard field goal, worth 44 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Denver Broncos 16
Seattle Seahawks 17

September 12, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Broncos −6

Luck index +64 Seahawks very lucky · −64 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 DEN 21 SEA 0
  2. 2 DEN 24 SEA 10
  3. 3 DEN 16 SEA 6
  4. 4 DEN 17 SEA 10
  5. 5 DEN 21 SEA 17
  6. 6 DEN 17 SEA 14
  7. 7 DEN 14 SEA 17
  8. 8 DEN 24 SEA 30
  9. 9 DEN 17 SEA 27
  10. 10 DEN 10 SEA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 64% of them, Seahawks 36%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+12.3%
Broncos by 9–1618.6%
Broncos by 1–830.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Seahawks by 1–820.7%
Seahawks by 9–1611.5%
Seahawks by 17+3.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 64 yds missed · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:46 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +18% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 31 yardsJudgment calls +13% DEN DEN: Turnover
3 Q3 7:42 The Broncos were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +26% SEA DEN: Turnover
4 Q3 3:08 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +39% SEA DEN: Field goal
5 Q3 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q4 6:16 B. McManus made 26-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +10% SEA DEN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +12% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:20 B. McManus missed 64-yard field goalKicks · 52% expected for him, 32 of 45 from 45+ before +44% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Damien Lewis (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out · 0.1 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 73% · Seahawks 27%

Final margin
Seahawks by 1
Luck in points
6.9 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 64% · Seahawks 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Broncos · Seahawks

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