luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2022 · September 12, 2022

Broncos at Seahawks, Week 1 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Broncos 17–16, but the replays lean toward the Broncos: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 32 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): B. McManus missed a 64-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Denver Broncos 16
Seattle Seahawks 17

September 12, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Broncos −6

Luck index +65 Seahawks very lucky · −65 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 7, Seahawks win 3.

  1. 1 DEN 30 SEA 7
  2. 2 DEN 23 SEA 7
  3. 3 DEN 27 SEA 14
  4. 4 DEN 23 SEA 13
  5. 5 DEN 20 SEA 14
  6. 6 DEN 9 SEA 6
  7. 7 DEN 9 SEA 7
  8. 8 DEN 16 SEA 19
  9. 9 DEN 14 SEA 21
  10. 10 DEN 10 SEA 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 65% of them, Seahawks 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+14.6%
Broncos by 9–1620.9%
Broncos by 1–828.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Seahawks by 1–820.8%
Seahawks by 9–169.8%
Seahawks by 17+3.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.3 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 1, without the luck Broncos by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 64 yds missed · 36% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 12 for 106 yards, Seahawks 5 for 77 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:02 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q1 8:25 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q1 6:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Ronald Darby), 21 yards +3% SEA +1.5 pts
Q1 6:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yards +5% SEA +1.8 pts
Q1 0:09 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 11:28 Taunting on the Broncos (Jonathon Cooper), 15 yards +4% SEA +1.8 pts
Q2 10:13 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Randy Gregory), 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% DEN +0.2 pts
Q2 9:14 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DEN +1.7 pts
Q2 4:50 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (D.J. Jones), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 10:48 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 10:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 31 yards +13% DEN +2.9 pts
Q3 9:31 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 7:05 Defensive Holding on the Broncos (Patrick Surtain II), 5 yards +4% SEA +1.7 pts
Q3 7:01 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards +2% SEA +0.6 pts
Q3 4:45 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 21 yards +8% DEN +2.4 pts
Q3 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% DEN +3.2 pts
Q4 6:28 False Start on the Broncos (Courtland Sutton), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:48 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
2 Q3 10:28 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 31 yardsJudgment calls +13% DEN DEN: Turnover
3 Q3 7:42 The Broncos fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SEA DEN: Turnover
4 Q3 5:41 The Seahawks fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DEN SEA: Punt
5 Q3 3:08 The Broncos fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% SEA DEN: Field goal
6 Q3 1:12 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +12% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:20 B. McManus missed a 64-yard field goalKicks · 36% expected for him, 32 of 45 from 45+ before +31% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Damien Lewis (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out · 0.1 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Ojemudia (DEN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 69% · Seahawks 31%

Final margin
Seahawks by 1
Luck in points
5.3 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 65% · Seahawks 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2022 games · Broncos · Seahawks

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