2022 season · final

Seattle Seahawks, 2022: game by game

The Seahawks went 9–8 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.

Every game

How often the Seahawks win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Broncos	W 17–16	35%	+65
Week 2	@ 49ers	L 7–27	25%	−25
Week 3	vs Falcons	L 23–27	46%	−46
Week 4	@ Lions	W 48–45	92%	+8
Week 5	@ Saints	L 32–39	53%	−53
Week 6	vs Cardinals	W 19–9	91%	+9
Week 7	@ Chargers	W 37–23	94%	+6
Week 8	vs Giants	W 27–13	91%	+9
Week 9	@ Cardinals	W 31–21	99%	+1
Week 10	vs Buccaneers	L 16–21	59%	−59
Week 12	vs Raiders	L 34–40	15%	−15
Week 13	@ Rams	W 27–23	90%	+10
Week 14	vs Panthers	L 24–30	45%	−45
Week 15	vs 49ers	L 13–21	12%	−12
Week 16	@ Chiefs	L 10–24	4%	−4
Week 17	vs Jets	W 23–6	90%	+10
Week 18	vs Rams	W 19–16	80%	+20
Wild Card	@ 49ers	L 23–41	17%	−17

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +65 vs DEN

Wk 2 −25 @ SF

Wk 3 −46 vs ATL

Wk 4 +8 @ DET

Wk 5 −53 @ NO

Wk 6 +9 vs ARI

Wk 7 +6 @ LAC

Wk 8 +9 vs NYG

Wk 9 +1 @ ARI

Wk 10 −59 @ TB

Wk 12 −15 vs LV

Wk 13 +10 @ LA

Wk 14 −45 vs CAR

Wk 15 −12 vs SF

Wk 16 −4 @ KC

Wk 17 +10 vs NYJ

Wk 18 +20 vs LA

Wild Card −17 @ SF

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Seahawks’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Injuries	+0.73	+27.8
Drops	+0.43	+21.7
Kicks	+0.37	+10.8
Judgment calls	−0.31	−8.1
Fumble bounces	−0.44	−12.3
3rd & 4th downs	−0.44	−7.0