luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Seahawks at Chiefs, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Seahawks 24–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 9 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.0 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 78% favorites.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 10
Kansas City Chiefs 24

December 24, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10.5

Luck index +8 Chiefs about even · −8 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 1, Chiefs win 9.

  1. 1 SEA 37 KC 31
  2. 2 SEA 28 KC 30
  3. 3 SEA 13 KC 19
  4. 4 SEA 30 KC 38
  5. 5 SEA 13 KC 24
  6. 6 SEA 20 KC 35
  7. 7 SEA 19 KC 37
  8. 8 SEA 13 KC 34
  9. 9 SEA 10 KC 35
  10. 10 SEA 20 KC 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 8% of them, Chiefs 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+0.7%
Seahawks by 9–161.8%
Seahawks by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation1.3%
Chiefs by 1–816.9%
Chiefs by 9–1620.0%
Chiefs by 17+53.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 16.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:25 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +4% SEA KC: Punt
2 Q1 10:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Bruce Irvin), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 1319 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +3% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:15 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% KC SEA: Punt
4 Q1 2:46 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% SEA KC: Punt
5 Q1 0:11 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedJu.Watson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 15 catchable balls before this +6% SEA KC: Punt
6 Q2 13:30 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 13:01 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% KC SEA: Punt
8 Q2 10:13 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Ryan Neal (SEA SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 14
Luck in points
2.7 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 16.7
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 8% · Chiefs 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Seahawks · Chiefs

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