luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Seahawks at Chiefs, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Seahawks 24–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Chiefs win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 78% favorites.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 10
Kansas City Chiefs 24

December 24, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −10.5

Luck index +4 Chiefs about even · −4 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 0, Chiefs win 10.

  1. 1 SEA 17 KC 20
  2. 2 SEA 27 KC 33
  3. 3 SEA 19 KC 29
  4. 4 SEA 27 KC 39
  5. 5 SEA 20 KC 34
  6. 6 SEA 7 KC 24
  7. 7 SEA 9 KC 29
  8. 8 SEA 16 KC 40
  9. 9 SEA 21 KC 50
  10. 10 SEA 3 KC 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 4% of them, Chiefs 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+0.1%
Seahawks by 9–160.8%
Seahawks by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Chiefs by 1–87.4%
Chiefs by 9–1616.3%
Chiefs by 17+72.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Chiefs by 14, without the luck Chiefs by 16.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 47 yds made · 74% expected
  • J. Myers, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 35 yards, Chiefs 5 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:15 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 5 yards 0% KC +0.3 pts
Q1 10:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Bruce Irvin), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.6 pts
Q1 3:36 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jordyn Brooks), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.2 pts
Q2 13:30 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% KC +0.7 pts
Q2 5:39 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 1:57 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% SEA +2.0 pts
Q2 1:02 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 14 yards +1% SEA +1.1 pts
Q2 0:23 Illegal Use of Hands on the Chiefs (L'Jarius Sneed), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q3 6:51 False Start on the Chiefs (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 2:27 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.7 pts
Q4 14:18 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards 0% SEA +0.7 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:25 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% SEA KC: Punt
2 Q1 10:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Bruce Irvin), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 1319 snaps before, position avg 1 per 422 +3% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:15 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% KC SEA: Punt
4 Q1 2:46 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% SEA KC: Punt
5 Q1 0:11 Ju.Watson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 15 catchable balls before this +5% SEA KC: Punt
6 Q2 13:30 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% KC KC: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:13 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% KC KC: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:57 Defensive Holding on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% SEA SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mecole Hardman (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Lockett (SEA WR), out · 1.1 pts
  • Ryan Neal (SEA SS), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 0% · Chiefs 100%

Final margin
Chiefs by 14
Luck in points
2.6 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 16.6
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 4% · Chiefs 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Seahawks · Chiefs

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