luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Eagles at Cowboys, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Eagles 40–34, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Cowboys win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:28 left): Return touchdown by the Eagles, worth 31 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 34
Dallas Cowboys 40

December 24, 2022 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −4

Luck index +43 Cowboys lucky · −43 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 38 DAL 20
  2. 2 PHI 32 DAL 20
  3. 3 PHI 25 DAL 19
  4. 4 PHI 30 DAL 27
  5. 5 PHI 23 DAL 26
  6. 6 PHI 24 DAL 30
  7. 7 PHI 20 DAL 30
  8. 8 PHI 12 DAL 25
  9. 9 PHI 13 DAL 30
  10. 10 PHI 7 DAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 43% of them, Cowboys 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+8.1%
Eagles by 9–1612.1%
Eagles by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation3.4%
Cowboys by 1–825.9%
Cowboys by 9–1615.7%
Cowboys by 17+14.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 6, without the luck Cowboys by 1.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. Maher, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 47 yds made · 76% expected
  • B. Maher, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. Maher, 48 yds made · 75% expected
  • B. Maher, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 2 for 10 yards, Cowboys 4 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:58 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +10% DAL +3.4 pts
Q2 1:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yards +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 0:25 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.7 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 4:20 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys, 6 yards +2% PHI +0.1 pts
Q4 1:44 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.1 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 16% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:28 The Cowboys threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +31% PHI DAL: Touchdown
2 Q3 2:19 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% DAL DAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 14:13 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q4 10:03 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +17% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 8:02 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 303rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:24 B. Maher made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 15 of 25 from 45+ before +14% DAL DAL: Field goal
7 Q4 2:19 The Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% DAL PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:20 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Terence Steele (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jalen Hurts (PHI QB), out, replaced by g.minshew · 0.9 pts
  • Arryn Siposs (PHI P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 43% · Cowboys 57%

Final margin
Cowboys by 6
Luck in points
4.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 43% · Cowboys 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Eagles · Cowboys

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