luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Giants at Vikings, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 27–24, but the Giants played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 5.2 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): G. Joseph made 61-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New York Giants 24
Minnesota Vikings 27

December 24, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4.5

Luck index +65 Vikings very lucky · −65 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 7, Vikings win 3.

  1. 1 NYG 33 MIN 6
  2. 2 NYG 27 MIN 7
  3. 3 NYG 28 MIN 13
  4. 4 NYG 33 MIN 21
  5. 5 NYG 24 MIN 16
  6. 6 NYG 19 MIN 14
  7. 7 NYG 16 MIN 14
  8. 8 NYG 20 MIN 23
  9. 9 NYG 29 MIN 37
  10. 10 NYG 17 MIN 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 65% of them, Vikings 35%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+19.7%
Giants by 9–1619.9%
Giants by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation2.2%
Vikings by 1–818.6%
Vikings by 9–1610.0%
Vikings by 17+5.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 4.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Gano, 44 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Gano, 44 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Joseph, 61 yds made · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Fabian Moreau), 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2794 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +18% MIN MIN: End of half
2 Q4 14:18 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +13% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q4 6:33 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedR. James dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +14% MIN NYG: Field goal
4 Q4 4:10 Blocked punt by the VikingsSpecial teams +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:06 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:07 The Giants converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +17% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:19 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 G. Joseph made 61-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 13 of 22 from 45+ before +26% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Brandel (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonathan Bullard (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 66% · Vikings 34%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
7.4 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 65% · Vikings 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Giants · Vikings

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