luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Giants at Vikings, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Giants 27–24, but the replays lean toward the Giants: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 22 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): G. Joseph made a 61-yard field goal, worth 27 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New York Giants 24
Minnesota Vikings 27

December 24, 2022 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −4.5

Luck index +67 Vikings very lucky · −67 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 7, Vikings win 3.

  1. 1 NYG 34 MIN 7
  2. 2 NYG 34 MIN 15
  3. 3 NYG 38 MIN 24
  4. 4 NYG 30 MIN 20
  5. 5 NYG 34 MIN 27
  6. 6 NYG 23 MIN 19
  7. 7 NYG 13 MIN 10
  8. 8 NYG 13 MIN 16
  9. 9 NYG 19 MIN 27
  10. 10 NYG 13 MIN 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 67% of them, Vikings 33%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+23.3%
Giants by 9–1619.2%
Giants by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation3.8%
Vikings by 1–815.9%
Vikings by 9–169.0%
Vikings by 17+5.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 3, without the luck Giants by 3.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Gano, 44 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Gano, 44 yds made · 86% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 74% expected
  • G. Joseph, 61 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 7 for 63 yards, Vikings 2 for 14 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:49 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +2% MIN +1.2 pts
Q1 3:23 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards +2% MIN +1.2 pts
Q2 1:37 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +4% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 9 yards +6% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Fabian Moreau), 13 yards, wiping out the play +17% MIN +3.4 pts
Q2 0:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Harrison Phillips), 5 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 6:17 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.5 pts
Q3 3:05 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 5 yards +3% MIN +0.8 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Fabian Moreau), 13 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 15 flags in 2794 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +18% MIN MIN: End of half
2 Q4 14:18 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q4 6:33 R. James dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 53 catchable balls before this +10% MIN NYG: Field goal
4 Q4 4:10 Blocked punt by the VikingsSpecial teams +15% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:06 The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:01 The Giants’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% NYG –
7 Q4 0:19 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +18% MIN MIN: Field goal
8 Q4 0:04 G. Joseph made a 61-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 13 of 22 from 45+ before +27% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Garrett Bradbury (MIN C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Brandel (MIN T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jonathan Bullard (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Xavier McKinney (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rodarius Williams (NYG CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 62% · Vikings 38%

Final margin
Vikings by 3
Luck in points
6.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 67% · Vikings 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Giants · Vikings

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