luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 25, 2022

Buccaneers at Cardinals, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cardinals 19–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.7 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): the Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 47 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final (OT)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Arizona Cardinals 16

December 25, 2022 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +10 Buccaneers about even · −10 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 TB 50 ARI 17
  2. 2 TB 36 ARI 10
  3. 3 TB 43 ARI 22
  4. 4 TB 30 ARI 13
  5. 5 TB 34 ARI 19
  6. 6 TB 25 ARI 13
  7. 7 TB 19 ARI 10
  8. 8 TB 17 ARI 12
  9. 9 TB 16 ARI 13
  10. 10 TB 20 ARI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 90% of them, Cardinals 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+56.0%
Buccaneers by 9–1618.8%
Buccaneers by 1–815.0%
Level after regulation1.0%
Cardinals by 1–86.1%
Cardinals by 9–162.5%
Cardinals by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 8.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Prater, 56 yds made · 59% expected
  • R. Succop, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Prater, 53 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Prater, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Succop, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • R. Succop, 40 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:47 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% TB ARI: Punt
2 Q2 9:42 Illegal Shift on the Buccaneers, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% ARI ARI: Punt
3 Q4 4:53 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +32% TB ARI: Punt
4 Q4 0:04 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Cardinals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Cardinals (Marquise Brown), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 3104 snaps before, position avg 1 per 412 +47% TB ARI: Punt
5 QOT 10:00 The Cardinals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% ARI ARI: Punt
6 QOT 9:19 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +20% ARI ARI: Punt
7 QOT 7:55 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% TB ARI: Punt
8 QOT 3:46 R. Succop made 40-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +13% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out (IR), replaced by t.mcsorley · 4.7 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Zach Allen (ARI DE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Rondale Moore (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Rashaad Coward (ARI T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Donovan Smith (TB T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 43% · Cardinals 57%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
11.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 8.7
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 90% · Cardinals 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Buccaneers · Cardinals

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