luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Falcons at Ravens, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Falcons 17–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:49 left): the Falcons were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 9 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 9
Baltimore Ravens 17

December 24, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +21 Ravens about even · −21 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 17 BAL 6
  2. 2 ATL 20 BAL 17
  3. 3 ATL 12 BAL 14
  4. 4 ATL 20 BAL 24
  5. 5 ATL 17 BAL 24
  6. 6 ATL 14 BAL 23
  7. 7 ATL 10 BAL 21
  8. 8 ATL 10 BAL 26
  9. 9 ATL 10 BAL 29
  10. 10 ATL 3 BAL 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 21% of them, Ravens 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.4%
Falcons by 9–165.8%
Falcons by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Ravens by 1–829.9%
Ravens by 9–1621.6%
Ravens by 17+27.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Ravens by 8, without the luck Ravens by 10. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds blocked · 64% expected
  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 5 for 48 yards, Ravens 1 for 6 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BAL +1.8 pts
Q2 0:25 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons, 13 yards +2% BAL +1.2 pts
Q3 13:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens, 6 yards +3% ATL +1.7 pts
Q3 8:06 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Olamide Zaccheaus), 10 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 1:54 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Falcons, 5 yards 0% BAL +0.5 pts
Q4 4:59 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +2% BAL +1.2 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q1 3:48 J. Tucker had a 55-yard field goal blockedKicks · 64% expected for him, 42 of 53 from 45+ before +6% ATL BAL: Field goal
3 Q1 0:49 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% BAL ATL: Turnover
4 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Punt
5 Q2 1:08 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +4% ATL ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 0:43 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% ATL ATL: Field goal
7 Q3 3:17 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +4% ATL ATL: Punt
8 Q4 6:49 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +5% BAL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Mariota (ATL QB), out (IR), replaced by d.ridder · 2.6 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 10% · Ravens 90%

Final margin
Ravens by 8
Luck in points
2.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 21% · Ravens 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Falcons · Ravens

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