luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 24, 2022

Falcons at Ravens, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Falcons 17–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 3.9 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:49 left): the Falcons were stopped on 4th & 5, worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 9
Baltimore Ravens 17

December 24, 2022 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6.5

Luck index +22 Ravens about even · −22 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 ATL 16 BAL 3
  2. 2 ATL 24 BAL 20
  3. 3 ATL 24 BAL 26
  4. 4 ATL 10 BAL 14
  5. 5 ATL 9 BAL 16
  6. 6 ATL 7 BAL 17
  7. 7 ATL 14 BAL 26
  8. 8 ATL 12 BAL 28
  9. 9 ATL 7 BAL 27
  10. 10 ATL 3 BAL 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 22% of them, Ravens 78%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+1.8%
Falcons by 9–165.9%
Falcons by 1–812.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Ravens by 1–827.9%
Ravens by 9–1621.6%
Ravens by 17+27.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 8.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds blocked · 62% expected
  • J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Ravens got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% BAL BAL: Punt
2 Q1 3:48 J. Tucker had a 55-yard field goal blockedKicks · 62% expected for him, 42 of 53 from 45+ before +6% ATL BAL: Field goal
3 Q1 0:49 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% BAL ATL: Turnover
4 Q2 14:54 The Ravens converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
5 Q2 12:49 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% ATL BAL: Field goal
6 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q3 3:17 The Falcons got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% ATL ATL: Punt
8 Q4 6:49 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +5% BAL ATL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 5.3 pts
  • Marcus Peters (BAL CB), out · 1.5 pts
  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Mariota (ATL QB), out (IR), replaced by d.ridder · 2.6 pts
  • Kyle Pitts (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Ta'Quon Graham (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rashad Fenton (ATL CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 19% · Ravens 81%

Final margin
Ravens by 8
Luck in points
0.9 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 22% · Ravens 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Falcons · Ravens

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