luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 25, 2022

Broncos at Rams, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Broncos 51–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 5.6 points to the Broncos.

An off day for the Broncos: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Broncos were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:47 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Denver Broncos 14
Los Angeles Rams 51

December 25, 2022 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Broncos −3

Luck index +8 Rams about even · −8 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Rams win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 12 LA 7
  2. 2 DEN 14 LA 17
  3. 3 DEN 17 LA 22
  4. 4 DEN 10 LA 17
  5. 5 DEN 24 LA 34
  6. 6 DEN 13 LA 27
  7. 7 DEN 11 LA 27
  8. 8 DEN 7 LA 27
  9. 9 DEN 0 LA 26
  10. 10 DEN 3 LA 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Broncos

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 38% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

31 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 +0.03 worse by 0.16
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed +0.41 +0.04 worse by 0.36
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.41 +0.08 better by 0.33
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.08 better by 0.22

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 8% of them, Rams 92%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.4%
Broncos by 9–161.5%
Broncos by 1–85.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Rams by 1–816.0%
Rams by 9–1624.1%
Rams by 17+51.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 37. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 34.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • B. McManus, 54 yds made · 70% expected
  • B. McManus, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Gay, 53 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:15 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +3% LA LA: Field goal
2 Q1 9:36 The Rams fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q1 8:31 M. Gay made 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 27 of 37 from 45+ before +6% LA LA: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:26 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% DEN DEN: Turnover
5 Q1 7:47 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% LA DEN: Turnover
6 Q1 5:20 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +3% LA DEN: Field goal
7 Q1 2:09 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% LA LA: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:47 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on the Broncos (Randy Gregory), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1006 snaps before, position avg 1 per 277 +3% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matthew Stafford (LA QB), out (IR), replaced by b.mayfield · 3.1 pts
  • Cooper Kupp (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Aaron Donald (LA DT), out · 1.0 pts
  • Allen Robinson (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chandler Brewer (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ben Skowronek (LA WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brian Allen (LA C), out · 0.3 pts
  • A'Shawn Robinson (LA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dre'Mont Jones (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Calvin Anderson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Kendall Hinton (DEN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Johnson (DEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jonas Griffith (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Fraboni (DEN LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 37
Luck in points
2.5 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 34.5
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 8% · Rams 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Broncos · Rams

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