Week 16 2022 · December 22, 2022
Jaguars at Jets, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Jets 19–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Jets.
An off day for the Jets: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Jaguars about even · −7 Jets
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Jets win 1.
- 1 JAX 38 NYJ 10
- 2 JAX 36 NYJ 13
- 3 JAX 28 NYJ 10
- 4 JAX 27 NYJ 11
- 5 JAX 20 NYJ 7
- 6 JAX 21 NYJ 10
- 7 JAX 20 NYJ 12
- 8 JAX 16 NYJ 10
- 9 JAX 19 NYJ 17
- 10 JAX 14 NYJ 20
Your call
Did the Jaguars earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Jets
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained | +0.25 | +0.11 | better by 0.14 |
| Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.27 | +0.17 | better by 0.43 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.27 | +0.03 | worse by 0.29 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.25 | +0.09 | worse by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 93% of them, Jets 7%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 16.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 50.4% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 23.9% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 18.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 4.9% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Jets by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 37 yds made · 88% expected
- R. Patterson, 32 yds made · 93% expected
- R. Patterson, 45 yds made · 76% expected
- R. Patterson, 44 yds missed · 78% expected
- R. Patterson, 41 yds made · 83% expected
- R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 89% expected
Penalties: Jaguars 3 for 25 yards, Jets 9 for 64 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:09 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.6 pts |
| Q2 10:39 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% JAX +1.1 pts |
| Q2 8:47 | False Start on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:05 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.1 pts |
| Q3 13:37 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +1.1 pts |
| Q3 8:57 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% NYJ +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:29 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.4 pts |
| Q3 7:06 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Tyler Conklin), 10 yards | +1% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q3 5:09 | Face Mask on the Jets, 15 yards | +2% JAX +1.4 pts |
| Q3 0:58 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +1% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 5:17 | Face Mask on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 15 yards | +1% NYJ +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:22 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.5 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:43 | The Jaguars fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NYJ | JAX: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 9:32 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% JAX | JAX: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 6:31 | The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +5% NYJ | NYJ: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 0:29 | R. Patterson missed a 44-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him | +7% NYJ | JAX: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 0:05 | The Jets threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Jets, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +7% JAX | NYJ: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 12:58 | C. Davis dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 33 catchable balls before this | +5% JAX | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 12:54 | The Jets converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% NYJ | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 11:13 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +7% JAX | NYJ: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Mike White (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 2.5 pts
- Cedric Ogbuehi (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Lamarcus Joyner (NYJ SS), out · 0.4 pts
- Denzel Mims (NYJ WR), out · 0.2 pts
- Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Cam Robinson (JAX T), out · 0.9 pts
- Travon Walker (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Folorunso Fatukasi (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 99% · Jets 1%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 16
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 13.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 93% · Jets 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · 
Jaguars · 
Jets
More from Week 16 2022
- Falcons at Ravens BAL 17–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Bills at Bears BUF 35–13 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bengals at Patriots CIN 22–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- Lions at Panthers CAR 37–23 · replay 89% for the winner
- Saints at Browns NO 17–10 · replay 53% for the winner
- Giants at Vikings MIN 27–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Seahawks at Chiefs KC 24–10 · replay 96% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 19–14 · replay 35% for the winner
- Commanders at 49ers SF 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- Eagles at Cowboys DAL 40–34 · replay 57% for the winner
- Raiders at Steelers PIT 13–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Packers at Dolphins GB 26–20 · replay 60% for the winner
- Broncos at Rams LA 51–14 · replay 93% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Cardinals TB 19–16 · replay 91% for the winner
- Chargers at Colts LAC 20–3 · replay 91% for the winner