luckadjusted

Week 16 2022 · December 22, 2022

Jaguars at Jets, Week 16 2022: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Jets 19–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Jets: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Jets were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:43 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 18 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 19
New York Jets 3

December 22, 2022 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −2.5

Luck index +8 Jaguars about even · −8 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 JAX 29 NYJ 0
  2. 2 JAX 33 NYJ 10
  3. 3 JAX 22 NYJ 3
  4. 4 JAX 22 NYJ 7
  5. 5 JAX 19 NYJ 6
  6. 6 JAX 17 NYJ 7
  7. 7 JAX 16 NYJ 9
  8. 8 JAX 13 NYJ 7
  9. 9 JAX 20 NYJ 17
  10. 10 JAX 24 NYJ 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Jaguars they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

42 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Jaguars offenseEPA per play gained +0.25 +0.11 better by 0.14
Jaguars defenseEPA per play allowed −0.27 +0.17 better by 0.43
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.27 +0.03 worse by 0.29
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.25 +0.09 worse by 0.16

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 92% of them, Jets 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+50.6%
Jaguars by 9–1623.8%
Jaguars by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation1.5%
Jets by 1–84.8%
Jets by 9–161.4%
Jets by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 12.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 37 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Patterson, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • R. Patterson, 45 yds made · 76% expected
  • R. Patterson, 44 yds missed · 77% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% NYJ JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 10:32 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% JAX JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 9:32 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% JAX JAX: Field goal
4 Q1 6:31 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Punt
5 Q2 0:29 R. Patterson missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him +7% NYJ JAX: Field goal
6 Q4 12:58 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedC. Davis dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 33 catchable balls before this +6% JAX NYJ: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 12:54 The Jets converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 11:13 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% JAX NYJ: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mike White (NYJ QB), out, replaced by z.wilson · 2.5 pts
  • Cedric Ogbuehi (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (NYJ SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denzel Mims (NYJ WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Travon Walker (JAX LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Folorunso Fatukasi (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 99% · Jets 1%

Final margin
Jaguars by 16
Luck in points
3.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 12.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 92% · Jets 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2022 games · Jaguars · Jets

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