2022 season · final

New York Jets, 2022: game by game

The Jets went 7–10 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.5 wins. Luck added 0.5: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–6.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Ravens	L 9–24	29%	−29
Week 2	@ Browns	W 31–30	1%	+99
Week 3	vs Bengals	L 12–27	7%	−7
Week 4	@ Steelers	W 24–20	55%	+45
Week 5	vs Dolphins	W 40–17	89%	+11
Week 6	@ Packers	W 27–10	86%	+14
Week 7	@ Broncos	W 16–9	73%	+27
Week 8	vs Patriots	L 17–22	61%	−61
Week 9	vs Bills	W 20–17	51%	+49
Week 11	@ Patriots	L 3–10	7%	−7
Week 12	vs Bears	W 31–10	77%	+23
Week 13	@ Vikings	L 22–27	26%	−26
Week 14	@ Bills	L 12–20	2%	−2
Week 15	vs Lions	L 17–20	36%	−36
Week 16	vs Jaguars	L 3–19	7%	−7
Week 17	@ Seahawks	L 6–23	10%	−10
Week 18	@ Dolphins	L 6–11	35%	−35

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −29 vs BAL

Wk 2 +99 @ CLE

Wk 3 −7 vs CIN

Wk 4 +45 @ PIT

Wk 5 +11 vs MIA

Wk 6 +14 @ GB

Wk 7 +27 @ DEN

Wk 8 −61 vs NE

Wk 9 +49 vs BUF

Wk 11 −7 @ NE

Wk 12 +23 vs CHI

Wk 13 −26 @ MIN

Wk 14 −2 @ BUF

Wk 15 −36 vs DET

Wk 16 −7 vs JAX

Wk 17 −10 @ SEA

Wk 18 −35 @ MIA

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.25	+11.5
Injuries	+0.07	+2.6
Rest	−0.04	−1.6
Fumble bounces	−0.06	−25.0
Judgment calls	−0.11	−5.4
Kicks	−0.17	+12.5
Drops	−0.54	−9.7