Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022
Jets at Packers, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Packers 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Packers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Packers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:52 left): Blocked punt by the Jets, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 New York Jets | 27 |
|---|---|
 Green Bay Packers | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Jets about even · −14 Packers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 9, Packers win 1.
- 1 NYJ 48 GB 13
- 2 NYJ 41 GB 14
- 3 NYJ 27 GB 6
- 4 NYJ 38 GB 20
- 5 NYJ 25 GB 10
- 6 NYJ 32 GB 20
- 7 NYJ 19 GB 10
- 8 NYJ 32 GB 26
- 9 NYJ 19 GB 16
- 10 NYJ 20 GB 27
Your call
Did the Jets earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Packers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 65% of the time; with this day’s form, 14%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
50 points apart for the Packers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | −0.01 | +0.04 | worse by 0.05 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.21 | +0.16 | better by 0.37 |
| Packers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.21 | +0.15 | worse by 0.36 |
| Packers defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.01 | +0.10 | better by 0.11 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 86% of them, Packers 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 46.0% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 17.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 9.0% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 3.4% |
| Packers by 17+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Crosby, 47 yds blocked · 78% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
- M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Jets 7 for 79 yards, Packers 7 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:15 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ashtyn Davis), 10 yards | +3% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets, 15 yards | +6% GB +2.2 pts |
| Q1 5:50 | False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:12 | Chop Block on the Jets, 15 yards | +2% GB +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:41 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +3% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:09 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers, 10 yards | +3% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:35 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (Jordan Whitehead), 15 yards | +1% GB +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:17 | Illegal Contact on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 5 yards | +1% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 2:40 | Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards | +3% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:39 | Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards | +2% NYJ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:06 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.2 pts |
| Q4 3:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Packers (Tedarrell Slaton), 2 yards | 0% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q4 3:36 | Defensive Offside on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.1 pts |
| Q4 2:37 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% GB +0.7 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2022
When it happened
Packers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:49 | The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% GB | GB: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 6:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Jets, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% GB | GB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:42 | The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +8% GB | GB: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | M. Crosby had a 47-yard field goal blockedKicks · 78% expected for him, 17 of 20 from 45+ before | +8% NYJ | GB: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 8:46 | The Packers fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NYJ | GB: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 2:24 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +8% NYJ | GB: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 0:36 | G. Zuerlein missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 33 of 47 from 45+ before | +13% GB | NYJ: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 5:52 | Blocked punt by the JetsSpecial teams | +13% NYJ | NYJ: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sammy Watkins (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Krys Barnes (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- George Fant (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Max Mitchell (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bryce Hall (NYJ CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Denzel Mims (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 99% · Packers 1%
- Final margin
- Jets by 17
- Luck in points
- 2.5 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 14.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 86% · Packers 14% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · 
Jets · 
Packers
More from Week 6 2022
- Commanders at Bears WAS 12–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ravens at Giants NYG 24–20 · replay 31% for the winner
- Bengals at Saints CIN 30–26 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 34–27 · replay 14% for the winner
- Vikings at Dolphins MIN 24–16 · replay 23% for the winner
- Patriots at Browns NE 38–15 · replay 94% for the winner
- 49ers at Falcons ATL 28–14 · replay 78% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Steelers PIT 20–18 · replay 13% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks SEA 19–9 · replay 91% for the winner
- Panthers at Rams LA 24–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Bills at Chiefs BUF 24–20 · replay 84% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 26–17 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 19–16 · replay 32% for the winner