luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Patriots at Browns, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Browns 38–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.3 points to the Browns.

An off day for the Browns: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Browns were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:22 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

New England Patriots 38
Cleveland Browns 15

October 16, 2022 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −2.5

Luck index +4 Patriots about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 10, Browns win 0.

  1. 1 NE 44 CLE 6
  2. 2 NE 37 CLE 6
  3. 3 NE 41 CLE 14
  4. 4 NE 31 CLE 8
  5. 5 NE 47 CLE 28
  6. 6 NE 37 CLE 21
  7. 7 NE 34 CLE 22
  8. 8 NE 28 CLE 19
  9. 9 NE 16 CLE 10
  10. 10 NE 32 CLE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

40 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Patriots offenseEPA per play gained +0.31 +0.15 better by 0.17
Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed −0.25 +0.12 better by 0.37
Browns offenseEPA per play gained −0.25 +0.14 worse by 0.39
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.31 +0.10 worse by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 96% of them, Browns 4%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+65.9%
Patriots by 9–1619.7%
Patriots by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Browns by 1–83.1%
Browns by 9–161.0%
Browns by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 24.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. York, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. York, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • C. York, 51 yds made · 68% expected
  • N. Folk, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Patriots converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% NE NE: Field goal
2 Q1 11:21 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% NE NE: Field goal
3 Q1 8:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1073 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q1 5:22 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q2 14:00 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +7% NE CLE: Punt
6 Q2 3:30 The Patriots converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Patriots (Jalen Mills), 21 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2787 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q2 0:36 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% NE CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Anthony Walker (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mac Jones (NE QB), out, replaced by b.zappe · 3.6 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Nelson Agholor (NE WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Lawrence Guy (NE DT), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Browns 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 23
Luck in points
1.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 24.2
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 96% · Browns 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Patriots · Browns

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