luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Bengals at Saints, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Saints 30–26, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:48 left): A. Kamara dropped a catchable pass, worth 25 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 30
New Orleans Saints 26

October 16, 2022 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +25 Bengals about even · −25 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 8, Saints win 2.

  1. 1 CIN 37 NO 10
  2. 2 CIN 35 NO 16
  3. 3 CIN 23 NO 7
  4. 4 CIN 30 NO 17
  5. 5 CIN 34 NO 24
  6. 6 CIN 24 NO 17
  7. 7 CIN 10 NO 6
  8. 8 CIN 21 NO 19
  9. 9 CIN 13 NO 16
  10. 10 CIN 7 NO 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 75% of them, Saints 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+24.1%
Bengals by 9–1622.2%
Bengals by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation4.0%
Saints by 1–814.9%
Saints by 9–166.5%
Saints by 17+3.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 4, without the luck Bengals by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • W. Lutz, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • W. Lutz, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 3 for 30 yards, Saints 4 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:09 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Demario Davis), 14 yards +4% CIN +1.7 pts
Q3 12:17 False Start on the Saints (Juwan Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 11:49 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% CIN +2.6 pts
Q3 11:04 Roughing the Passer on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 15 yards +4% NO +1.8 pts
Q4 8:34 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +4% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 1:57 Offside on Free Kick on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +0.5 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 86%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:51 The Bengals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q3 14:16 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 11:31 Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 7:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q4 1:57 The Bengals’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffside on Free Kick on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% NO CIN: End of game
6 Q4 0:48 A. Kamara dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 20 catchable balls before this +25% CIN NO: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:44 M. Callaway dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 11 catchable balls before this +19% CIN NO: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:34 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Saints got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +11% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out, replaced by a.dalton · 1.2 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Chris Olave (NO WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Calvin Throckmorton (NO T), out · 0.6 pts
  • P.J. Williams (NO CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaiah Prince (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 81% · Saints 19%

Final margin
Bengals by 4
Luck in points
3.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 75% · Saints 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Bengals · Saints

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