luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Cardinals at Seahawks, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cardinals 19–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Cardinals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:59 left): Return touchdown by the Cardinals, worth 22 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 9
Seattle Seahawks 19

October 16, 2022 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Cardinals −2.5

Luck index +17 Seahawks about even · −17 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 ARI 14 SEA 0
  2. 2 ARI 16 SEA 13
  3. 3 ARI 31 SEA 33
  4. 4 ARI 13 SEA 19
  5. 5 ARI 10 SEA 18
  6. 6 ARI 14 SEA 25
  7. 7 ARI 3 SEA 17
  8. 8 ARI 9 SEA 26
  9. 9 ARI 3 SEA 24
  10. 10 ARI 12 SEA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Cardinals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Seahawks they would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.

38 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained −0.19 +0.09 worse by 0.28
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.13 better by 0.20
Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.14 worse by 0.22
Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed −0.19 +0.14 better by 0.33

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 17% of them, Seahawks 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.6%
Cardinals by 9–163.7%
Cardinals by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Seahawks by 1–819.3%
Seahawks by 9–1622.7%
Seahawks by 17+41.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 1.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • J. Myers, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Myers, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +12% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 12:26 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q1 3:01 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 15:00 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% SEA ARI: Punt
5 Q2 4:02 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% SEA ARI: Punt
6 Q2 1:12 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI ARI: Punt
7 Q3 0:59 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CardinalsSpecial teams +22% ARI SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:12 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% SEA ARI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gabe Jackson (SEA G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaad Penny (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tyler Ott (SEA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Antoine Wesley (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Prater (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • James Conner (ARI RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 32% · Seahawks 68%

Final margin
Seahawks by 10
Luck in points
8.3 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 17% · Seahawks 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Cardinals · Seahawks

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