luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Bills at Chiefs, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Chiefs 24–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10. The Chiefs had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Bills were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:56 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 24
Kansas City Chiefs 20

October 16, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Bills −2.5

Luck index +16 Bills about even · −16 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 8, Chiefs win 2.

  1. 1 BUF 47 KC 17
  2. 2 BUF 41 KC 20
  3. 3 BUF 37 KC 21
  4. 4 BUF 41 KC 28
  5. 5 BUF 48 KC 38
  6. 6 BUF 38 KC 31
  7. 7 BUF 31 KC 27
  8. 8 BUF 34 KC 32
  9. 9 BUF 27 KC 30
  10. 10 BUF 22 KC 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 84% of them, Chiefs 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+35.5%
Bills by 9–1623.1%
Bills by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation1.1%
Chiefs by 1–89.7%
Chiefs by 9–164.5%
Chiefs by 17+1.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to the Chiefs: the final margin was Bills by 4, without the luck Bills by 10.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • H. Butker, 62 yds made · 50% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • H. Butker, 44 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 35 yards, Chiefs 5 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:48 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chiefs, 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +2.1 pts
Q1 5:33 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Gabriel Davis), 10 yards +3% KC +0.9 pts
Q2 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Juan Thornhill), 23 yards +9% BUF +1.7 pts
Q2 2:46 Defensive Holding on the Bills, 5 yards +2% KC +0.5 pts
Q2 2:35 False Start on the Chiefs, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 2:33 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 5 yards +5% KC +1.1 pts
Q2 2:27 Taunting on the Chiefs (JuJu Smith-Schuster), 15 yards +4% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 1:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills (Tyler Matakevich), 3 yards +1% KC +0.3 pts
Q2 1:29 False Start on the Bills, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% KC +0.3 pts
Q4 12:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% BUF +2.8 pts
Q4 1:04 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 5 yards +2% KC 0.0 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2022

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:44 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +11% KC KC: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:37 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +15% KC BUF: Punt
3 Q3 12:21 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% KC KC: Missed field goal
4 Q3 2:50 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3614 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +19% BUF BUF: Punt
6 Q4 6:19 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% BUF KC: Punt
7 Q4 2:19 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:56 The Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 40% of interception-worthy throws +14% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashad Fenton (KC CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 96% · Chiefs 4%

Final margin
Bills by 4
Luck in points
6.5 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.5
Replay with same day's form
Bills 84% · Chiefs 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Bills · Chiefs

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