luckadjusted

Week 6 2022 · October 16, 2022

Bills at Chiefs, Week 6 2022: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Chiefs 24–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Chiefs had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Chiefs.

Before kickoff the Bills were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:44 left): the Chiefs converted 3rd & 10, worth 19 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Buffalo Bills 24
Kansas City Chiefs 20

October 16, 2022 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Bills −2.5

Luck index +30 Bills lucky · −30 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 7, Chiefs win 3.

  1. 1 BUF 34 KC 6
  2. 2 BUF 30 KC 10
  3. 3 BUF 34 KC 19
  4. 4 BUF 32 KC 20
  5. 5 BUF 35 KC 27
  6. 6 BUF 35 KC 31
  7. 7 BUF 33 KC 31
  8. 8 BUF 21 KC 24
  9. 9 BUF 17 KC 24
  10. 10 BUF 24 KC 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 70% of them, Chiefs 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+23.6%
Bills by 9–1619.8%
Bills by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation3.7%
Chiefs by 1–816.9%
Chiefs by 9–167.0%
Chiefs by 17+3.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • H. Butker, 62 yds made · 56% expected
  • H. Butker, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • H. Butker, 44 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:28 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedThe Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% BUF KC: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:44 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedThe Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +19% KC KC: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:37 The Bills were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +15% KC BUF: Punt
4 Q3 2:50 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 20 flags in 3614 snaps before, position avg 1 per 282 +19% BUF BUF: Punt
6 Q4 6:19 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% BUF KC: Punt
7 Q4 2:19 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:56 The Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashad Fenton (KC CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Micah Hyde (BUF FS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 81% · Chiefs 19%

Final margin
Bills by 4
Luck in points
2.6 for the Chiefs
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Bills 70% · Chiefs 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2022 games · Bills · Chiefs

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