luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 NFL season · October 13, 2022–October 17

Week 6 2022: who deserved to win

6 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Commanders beat the Bears 12–7 in a game they win 38% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 6 2022 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Steelers 20–18 vs Buccaneers 23% 13% Lucky
Jets 27–10 @ Packers 29% 86% Deserved
Giants 24–20 vs Ravens 34% 31% Lucky
Falcons 28–14 vs 49ers 40% 78% Deserved
Patriots 38–15 @ Browns 43% 94% Deserved
Seahawks 19–9 vs Cardinals 43% 91% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Steelers W 20–18 vs Buccaneers 13% +87
2 Colts W 34–27 vs Jaguars 14% +86
3 Vikings W 24–16 @ Dolphins 23% +77
4 Giants W 24–20 vs Ravens 31% +69
5 Chargers W 19–16 vs Broncos 32% +68
6 Commanders W 12–7 @ Bears 38% +62
7 Eagles W 26–17 vs Cowboys 69% +31
8 Bengals W 30–26 @ Saints 75% +25
9 Falcons W 28–14 vs 49ers 78% +22
10 Bills W 24–20 @ Chiefs 84% +16
11 Jets W 27–10 @ Packers 86% +14
12 Seahawks W 19–9 vs Cardinals 91% +9
13 Rams W 24–10 vs Panthers 91% +9
14 Patriots W 38–15 @ Browns 94% +6
15 Browns L 15–38 vs Patriots 6% −6
16 Panthers L 10–24 @ Rams 9% −9
17 Cardinals L 9–19 @ Seahawks 9% −9
18 Packers L 10–27 vs Jets 14% −14
19 Chiefs L 20–24 vs Bills 16% −16
20 49ers L 14–28 @ Falcons 22% −22
21 Saints L 26–30 vs Bengals 25% −25
22 Cowboys L 17–26 @ Eagles 31% −31
23 Bears L 7–12 vs Commanders 62% −62
24 Broncos L 16–19 @ Chargers 68% −68
25 Ravens L 20–24 @ Giants 69% −69
26 Dolphins L 16–24 vs Vikings 77% −77
27 Jaguars L 27–34 @ Colts 86% −86
28 Buccaneers L 18–20 @ Steelers 87% −87