luckadjusted

2022 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2022: game by game

The Chiefs went 14–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.

Playoffs: 3–0, replay wins 2.4.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Cardinals W 44–21 93% +7
Week 2 vs Chargers W 27–24 33% +67
Week 3 @ Colts L 17–20 95% −95
Week 4 @ Buccaneers W 41–31 44% +56
Week 5 vs Raiders W 30–29 59% +41
Week 6 vs Bills L 20–24 30% −30
Week 7 @ 49ers W 44–23 93% +7
Week 9 vs Titans W 20–17 96% +4
Week 10 vs Jaguars W 27–17 94% +6
Week 11 @ Chargers W 30–27 88% +12
Week 12 vs Rams W 26–10 100% 0
Week 13 @ Bengals L 24–27 48% −48
Week 14 @ Broncos W 34–28 99% +1
Week 15 @ Texans W 30–24 97% +3
Week 16 vs Seahawks W 24–10 92% +8
Week 17 vs Broncos W 27–24 97% +3
Week 18 @ Raiders W 31–13 98% +2
Divisional round vs Jaguars W 27–20 95% +5
AFC Championship vs Bengals W 23–20 67% +33
Super Bowl @ Eagles W 38–35 82% +18

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Injuries+40.9+2.40
3rd & 4th downs+8.9+0.52
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.09
Rest+1.4+0.08
Drops−9.1−0.54
Judgment calls−15.3−0.90
Kicks−30.2−1.77