luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2022 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2022: game by game

The Chiefs went 14–3 in 2022; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 13th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–3.

Playoffs: 3–0, replay wins 2.6.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Cardinals W 44–21 94% +6
Week 2 vs Chargers W 27–24 37% +64
Week 3 @ Colts L 17–20 90% −90
Week 4 @ Buccaneers W 41–31 48% +52
Week 5 vs Raiders W 30–29 77% +23
Week 6 vs Bills L 20–24 16% −16
Week 7 @ 49ers W 44–23 94% +6
Week 9 vs Titans W 20–17 96% +4
Week 10 vs Jaguars W 27–17 85% +15
Week 11 @ Chargers W 30–27 96% +4
Week 12 vs Rams W 26–10 99% +1
Week 13 @ Bengals L 24–27 35% −35
Week 14 @ Broncos W 34–28 99% +1
Week 15 @ Texans W 30–24 99% +1
Week 16 vs Seahawks W 24–10 96% +4
Week 17 vs Broncos W 27–24 97% +3
Week 18 @ Raiders W 31–13 99% +1
Divisional round vs Jaguars W 27–20 94% +6
AFC Championship vs Bengals W 23–20 83% +17
Super Bowl vs Eagles W 38–35 83% +17

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Injuries+0.54+30.6
3rd & 4th downs+0.52+10.8
Drops+0.35−11.8
Rest+0.02+1.4
Judgment calls−0.19−6.0
Fumble bounces−0.21+1.7
Kicks−1.47−30.3