luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Kansas City Chiefs, 2023: game by game

The Chiefs went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 12.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 1.9.

Every game

How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Lions L 20–21 90% −90
Week 2 @ Jaguars W 17–9 55% +45
Week 3 vs Bears W 41–10 99% +1
Week 4 @ Jets W 23–20 82% +18
Week 5 @ Vikings W 27–20 78% +22
Week 6 vs Broncos W 19–8 87% +13
Week 7 vs Chargers W 31–17 91% +9
Week 8 @ Broncos L 9–24 61% −61
Week 9 vs Dolphins W 21–14 68% +32
Week 11 vs Eagles L 17–21 58% −58
Week 12 @ Raiders W 31–17 82% +18
Week 13 @ Packers L 19–27 75% −75
Week 14 vs Bills L 17–20 47% −47
Week 15 @ Patriots W 27–17 92% +8
Week 16 vs Raiders L 14–20 27% −27
Week 17 vs Bengals W 25–17 89% +11
Week 18 @ Chargers W 13–12 88% +12
Wild Card vs Dolphins W 26–7 62% +38
Divisional round @ Bills W 27–24 63% +37
AFC Championship @ Ravens W 17–10 49% +51
Super Bowl vs 49ers W 25–22 16% +84

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Kicks+15.9+0.93
3rd & 4th downs+8.9+0.52
Injuries+0.3+0.02
Rest−2.4−0.14
Fumble bounces−4.7−0.28
Drops−7.4−0.43
Judgment calls−17.6−1.04