2023 season · final
Kansas City Chiefs, 2023: game by game
The Chiefs went 11–6 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Playoffs: 4–0, replay wins 2.4.
Every game
How often the Chiefs win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Lions | L 20–21 | 79% | −79 |
| Week 2 | @ Jaguars | W 17–9 | 34% | +66 |
| Week 3 | vs Bears | W 41–10 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Jets | W 23–20 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 5 | @ Vikings | W 27–20 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 6 | vs Broncos | W 19–8 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 7 | vs Chargers | W 31–17 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 9–24 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 9 | vs Dolphins | W 21–14 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 11 | vs Eagles | L 17–21 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 12 | @ Raiders | W 31–17 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 13 | @ Packers | L 19–27 | 58% | −58 |
| Week 14 | vs Bills | L 17–20 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 15 | @ Patriots | W 27–17 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 16 | vs Raiders | L 14–20 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 17 | vs Bengals | W 25–17 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 18 | @ Chargers | W 13–12 | 80% | +20 |
| Wild Card | vs Dolphins | W 26–7 | 77% | +23 |
| Divisional round | @ Bills | W 27–24 | 79% | +21 |
| AFC Championship | @ Ravens | W 17–10 | 71% | +29 |
| Super Bowl | vs 49ers | W 25–22 | 16% | +84 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chiefs’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.26 | +15.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.22 | +11.2 |
| Injuries | −0.03 | +0.2 |
| Rest | −0.05 | −2.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.18 | −6.4 |
| Judgment calls | −0.24 | −8.7 |
| Drops | −0.81 | −13.2 |