luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 25, 2023

Raiders at Chiefs, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Chiefs 20–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

An off day for the Chiefs: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:00 left): Return touchdown by the Raiders, worth 34 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 20
Kansas City Chiefs 14

December 25, 2023 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −11

Luck index +27 Raiders lucky · −27 Chiefs

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 7, Chiefs win 3.

  1. 1 LV 30 KC 7
  2. 2 LV 27 KC 10
  3. 3 LV 19 KC 6
  4. 4 LV 24 KC 13
  5. 5 LV 24 KC 17
  6. 6 LV 35 KC 31
  7. 7 LV 17 KC 15
  8. 8 LV 13 KC 16
  9. 9 LV 7 KC 14
  10. 10 LV 7 KC 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Chiefs

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.

47 points apart for the Chiefs: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained −0.18 +0.07 worse by 0.26
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.17 +0.09 better by 0.26
Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained −0.17 +0.20 worse by 0.37
Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed −0.18 +0.06 better by 0.24

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 73% of them, Chiefs 27%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+21.0%
Raiders by 9–1622.5%
Raiders by 1–827.6%
Level after regulation3.3%
Chiefs by 1–815.6%
Chiefs by 9–166.6%
Chiefs by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 3.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • H. Butker, 36 yds missed · 91% expected
  • D. Carlson, 35 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chiefs’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chiefs were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:53 The Raiders fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LV LV: Punt
2 Q1 10:42 The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% LV KC: Punt
3 Q1 5:35 The Raiders got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q2 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1544 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% KC KC: Punt
5 Q2 12:21 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:00 The Chiefs fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +34% LV KC: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 4:55 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedThe Chiefs threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RaidersSpecial teams +24% LV LV: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 2:48 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% KC KC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Donovan Smith (KC T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Bryan Cook (KC FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Skyy Moore (KC WR), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Jacobs (LV RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Mayer (LV TE), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 37% · Chiefs 63%

Final margin
Raiders by 6
Luck in points
9.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 3.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 73% · Chiefs 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Raiders · Chiefs

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