luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Jaguars at Buccaneers, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Jaguars 30–12, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:11 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30

December 24, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −2

Luck index +19 Buccaneers about even · −19 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 20 TB 9
  2. 2 JAX 20 TB 16
  3. 3 JAX 20 TB 23
  4. 4 JAX 12 TB 17
  5. 5 JAX 20 TB 27
  6. 6 JAX 9 TB 20
  7. 7 JAX 14 TB 27
  8. 8 JAX 10 TB 27
  9. 9 JAX 9 TB 29
  10. 10 JAX 6 TB 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 19% of them, Buccaneers 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.8%
Jaguars by 9–164.8%
Jaguars by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation1.6%
Buccaneers by 1–826.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.8%
Buccaneers by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.7 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 18, without the luck Buccaneers by 3.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 2 for 20 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 4:50 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 15 yards +6% TB +3.4 pts
Q2 1:19 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q3 9:26 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +1.4 pts
Q4 14:18 False Start on the Buccaneers (David Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 12:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 11:26 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Devin White), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% JAX +2.4 pts
Q4 4:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 14 yards 0% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 4:43 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX 0.0 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% TB TB: Field goal
2 Q1 10:11 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% TB TB: Field goal
3 Q1 4:52 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q2 15:00 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
6 Q2 9:09 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
7 Q2 6:25 B. McManus missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 56 of 80 from 45+ before +6% TB JAX: Turnover
8 Q2 4:50 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Andre Cisco), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2644 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +6% TB TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cam Robinson (JAX T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 23% · Buccaneers 77%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 18
Luck in points
14.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 3.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 19% · Buccaneers 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Jaguars · Buccaneers

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