luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 24, 2023

Packers at Panthers, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Panthers 33–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.6 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Packers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:39 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 4, worth 25 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 33
Carolina Panthers 30

December 24, 2023 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Packers −3.5

Luck index +22 Packers about even · −22 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 GB 31 CAR 2
  2. 2 GB 34 CAR 13
  3. 3 GB 19 CAR 3
  4. 4 GB 33 CAR 20
  5. 5 GB 20 CAR 9
  6. 6 GB 27 CAR 20
  7. 7 GB 14 CAR 10
  8. 8 GB 23 CAR 21
  9. 9 GB 19 CAR 23
  10. 10 GB 16 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 78% of them, Panthers 22%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+28.9%
Packers by 9–1621.9%
Packers by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Panthers by 1–812.4%
Panthers by 9–166.2%
Panthers by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Pineiro, 52 yds made · 75% expected
  • A. Carlson, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • A. Carlson, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:59 The Panthers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:44 Roughing the Passer on the Panthers (Yetur Gross-Matos), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 2067 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +6% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q2 4:15 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% GB CAR: Punt
4 Q3 7:58 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:21 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Isaiah McDuffie), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1289 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:05 The Panthers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% CAR CAR: End of game
7 Q4 2:39 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +25% GB GB: Field goal
8 Q4 0:22 A. Carlson made 32-yard field goalKicks · 95% expected for him +13% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dicaprio Bootle (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin McCray (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jayden Reed (GB WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 77% · Panthers 23%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
3.4 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 78% · Panthers 22% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Packers · Panthers

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