luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · December 21, 2023–December 25

Week 16 2023: who deserved to win

1 of 16 winners was behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Jets beat the Commanders 30–28 in a game they win 9% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 16 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 5 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 20–14 @ Chiefs 21% 75% Deserved
Patriots 26–23 @ Broncos 30% 69% Deserved
Ravens 33–19 @ 49ers 32% 89% Deserved
Steelers 34–11 vs Bengals 41% 81% Deserved
Buccaneers 30–12 vs Jaguars 44% 81% Deserved

Week 16 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Jets W 30–28 vs Commanders 9% +91
2 Seahawks W 20–17 @ Titans 61% +39
3 Packers W 33–30 @ Panthers 63% +37
4 Bears W 27–16 vs Cardinals 63% +37
5 Patriots W 26–23 @ Broncos 69% +31
6 Dolphins W 22–20 vs Cowboys 74% +26
7 Raiders W 20–14 @ Chiefs 75% +25
8 Rams W 30–22 vs Saints 80% +20
9 Buccaneers W 30–12 vs Jaguars 81% +19
10 Steelers W 34–11 vs Bengals 81% +19
11 Bills W 24–22 @ Chargers 84% +16
12 Eagles W 33–25 vs Giants 85% +15
13 Lions W 30–24 @ Vikings 88% +12
14 Ravens W 33–19 @ 49ers 89% +11
15 Falcons W 29–10 vs Colts 93% +7
16 Browns W 36–22 @ Texans 96% +4
17 Texans L 22–36 vs Browns 4% −4
18 Colts L 10–29 @ Falcons 7% −7
19 49ers L 19–33 vs Ravens 11% −11
20 Vikings L 24–30 vs Lions 12% −12
21 Giants L 25–33 @ Eagles 15% −15
22 Chargers L 22–24 vs Bills 16% −16
23 Bengals L 11–34 @ Steelers 19% −19
24 Jaguars L 12–30 @ Buccaneers 19% −19
25 Saints L 22–30 @ Rams 20% −20
26 Chiefs L 14–20 vs Raiders 25% −25
27 Cowboys L 20–22 @ Dolphins 26% −26
28 Broncos L 23–26 vs Patriots 31% −31
29 Cardinals L 16–27 @ Bears 37% −37
30 Panthers L 30–33 vs Packers 37% −37
31 Titans L 17–20 vs Seahawks 39% −39
32 Commanders L 28–30 @ Jets 91% −91