luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 23, 2023

Bengals at Steelers, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 34–11 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:12 left): the Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 11
Pittsburgh Steelers 34

December 23, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +31 Steelers lucky · −31 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 CIN 28 PIT 10
  2. 2 CIN 20 PIT 12
  3. 3 CIN 26 PIT 23
  4. 4 CIN 13 PIT 15
  5. 5 CIN 23 PIT 27
  6. 6 CIN 6 PIT 13
  7. 7 CIN 13 PIT 23
  8. 8 CIN 10 PIT 24
  9. 9 CIN 0 PIT 18
  10. 10 CIN 3 PIT 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 31% of them, Steelers 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+4.3%
Bengals by 9–168.3%
Bengals by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation3.4%
Steelers by 1–823.9%
Steelers by 9–1622.2%
Steelers by 17+21.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 17.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 76% expected
  • E. McPherson, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:25 The Bengals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +3% CIN CIN: Turnover
2 Q1 8:00 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% CIN CIN: Turnover
3 Q1 5:12 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +12% PIT CIN: Punt
4 Q1 2:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:49 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +3% CIN PIT: Punt
6 Q2 2:19 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +3% PIT CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:04 C. Boswell made 50-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 40 of 51 from 45+ before +3% PIT PIT: Punt
8 Q3 9:47 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Pickett (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 1.6 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (PIT SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trenton Thompson (PIT SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 3.3 pts
  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.6 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 23
Luck in points
5.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 17.9
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 31% · Steelers 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Bengals · Steelers

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