luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 16 2023 · December 23, 2023

Bengals at Steelers, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Bengals 34–11, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 59% favorites.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 11
Pittsburgh Steelers 34

December 23, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3

Luck index +19 Steelers about even · −19 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 2, Steelers win 8.

  1. 1 CIN 24 PIT 13
  2. 2 CIN 20 PIT 17
  3. 3 CIN 21 PIT 23
  4. 4 CIN 19 PIT 24
  5. 5 CIN 21 PIT 28
  6. 6 CIN 7 PIT 17
  7. 7 CIN 6 PIT 20
  8. 8 CIN 17 PIT 34
  9. 9 CIN 14 PIT 36
  10. 10 CIN 3 PIT 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 19% of them, Steelers 81%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.8%
Bengals by 9–164.9%
Bengals by 1–812.2%
Level after regulation1.1%
Steelers by 1–824.2%
Steelers by 9–1621.1%
Steelers by 17+34.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 23, without the luck Steelers by 18.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • E. McPherson, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Boswell, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 3 for 20 yards, Steelers 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 1:26 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 2:44 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Joey Porter Jr.), 5 yards 0% CIN +1.1 pts
Q4 13:27 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards 0% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 13:14 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 3:47 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.9 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Bengals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +2% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q1 9:25 The Bengals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +2% CIN CIN: Turnover
3 Q1 8:00 The Bengals got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +5% CIN CIN: Turnover
4 Q1 5:12 The Bengals threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +3% PIT CIN: Punt
5 Q1 2:22 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +3% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:59 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +2% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:19 The Bengals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +3% PIT CIN: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:04 C. Boswell made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 40 of 51 from 45+ before +3% PIT PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Pickett (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 1.6 pts
  • Minkah Fitzpatrick (PIT FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Keanu Neal (PIT FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (PIT SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Trenton Thompson (PIT SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.browning · 3.3 pts
  • Ja'Marr Chase (CIN WR), out · 1.6 pts
  • Cam Taylor-Britt (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 0% · Steelers 100%

Final margin
Steelers by 23
Luck in points
4.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 18.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 19% · Steelers 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Bengals · Steelers

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