luckadjusted

Week 16 2023 · December 25, 2023

Ravens at 49ers, Week 16 2023: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the 49ers 33–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 8 of 10. The 49ers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.9 points to the 49ers.

An off day for the 49ers: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%. The numbers

Before kickoff the 49ers were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:08 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 24 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 33
San Francisco 49ers 19

December 25, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −6.5

Luck index +19 Ravens about even · −19 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 8, 49ers win 2.

  1. 1 BAL 44 SF 14
  2. 2 BAL 37 SF 14
  3. 3 BAL 43 SF 24
  4. 4 BAL 27 SF 12
  5. 5 BAL 39 SF 27
  6. 6 BAL 21 SF 13
  7. 7 BAL 36 SF 31
  8. 8 BAL 23 SF 21
  9. 9 BAL 17 SF 20
  10. 10 BAL 10 SF 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the 49ers

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Ravens they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 19%.

37 points apart for the 49ers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Ravens offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.12 better by 0.01
Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed +0.24 +0.00 worse by 0.24
49ers offenseEPA per play gained +0.24 +0.22 better by 0.02
49ers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.05 worse by 0.08

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 81% of them, 49ers 19%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+38.3%
Ravens by 9–1623.0%
Ravens by 1–819.4%
Level after regulation1.5%
49ers by 1–810.7%
49ers by 9–164.7%
49ers by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 18.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:17 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +14% SF SF: Turnover
2 Q1 6:57 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Ronald Darby), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2950 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% SF SF: Field goal
3 Q1 3:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 21 yardsJudgment calls +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
4 Q2 9:38 The Ravens converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q2 8:08 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedThe 49ers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 53% expected to stay out of the defense's handsChop Block on the 49ers (Christian McCaffrey), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 3108 snaps before, position avg 1 per 870 +24% BAL SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:10 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedZ. Flowers dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 78 catchable balls before this +9% SF BAL: Field goal
7 Q2 3:23 Illegal Use of Hands on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% SF SF: Punt
8 Q2 0:24 The Ravens converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +13% BAL BAL: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Talanoa Hufanga (SF SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Arik Armstead (SF DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 99% · 49ers 1%

Final margin
Ravens by 14
Luck in points
4.8 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 18.8
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 81% · 49ers 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2023 games · Ravens · 49ers

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