2023 season · final
Baltimore Ravens, 2023: game by game
The Ravens went 13–4 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.7 wins. Luck cost them 0.7: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–4.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.2.
Every game
How often the Ravens win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | W 25–9 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 2 | @ Bengals | W 27–24 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 3 | vs Colts | L 19–22 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 4 | @ Browns | W 28–3 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 5 | @ Steelers | L 10–17 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 6 | vs Titans | W 24–16 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 7 | vs Lions | W 38–6 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 8 | @ Cardinals | W 31–24 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 9 | vs Seahawks | W 37–3 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 10 | vs Browns | L 31–33 | 86% | −86 |
| Week 11 | vs Bengals | W 34–20 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 12 | @ Chargers | W 20–10 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 14 | vs Rams | W 37–31 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 15 | @ Jaguars | W 23–7 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 16 | @ 49ers | W 33–19 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | W 56–19 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 18 | vs Steelers | L 10–17 | 89% | −89 |
| Divisional round | vs Texans | W 34–10 | 87% | +13 |
| AFC Championship | vs Chiefs | L 10–17 | 29% | −29 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Ravens’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.32 | +6.1 |
| Rest | +0.04 | +1.8 |
| Injuries | −0.24 | −8.6 |
| Judgment calls | −0.34 | −8.4 |
| Drops | −0.37 | −9.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.43 | −8.1 |
| Kicks | −1.24 | −10.6 |