luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Ravens at Steelers, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 17–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Steelers win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 7.6 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:10 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 37 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

October 8, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4.5

Luck index +56 Steelers lucky · −56 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Steelers win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 37 PIT 13
  2. 2 BAL 30 PIT 13
  3. 3 BAL 55 PIT 43
  4. 4 BAL 19 PIT 10
  5. 5 BAL 14 PIT 10
  6. 6 BAL 10 PIT 8
  7. 7 BAL 10 PIT 13
  8. 8 BAL 23 PIT 31
  9. 9 BAL 10 PIT 23
  10. 10 BAL 10 PIT 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 56% of them, Steelers 44%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+13.4%
Ravens by 9–1616.0%
Ravens by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation5.8%
Steelers by 1–819.9%
Steelers by 9–1614.5%
Steelers by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:07 The Ravens converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +9% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 0:19 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +12% PIT BAL: Punt
3 Q4 14:20 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% BAL PIT: Punt
4 Q4 11:18 Blocked punt by the SteelersSpecial teams +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 9:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q4 4:10 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +37% PIT BAL: Turnover
7 Q4 2:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +16% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:12 The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% PIT BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dan Moore (PIT T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Morgan Moses (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 92% · Steelers 8%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
12.0 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 56% · Steelers 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Ravens · Steelers

More from Week 5 2023