luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Ravens at Steelers, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 17–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:09 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 10
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

October 8, 2023 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −4.5

Luck index +35 Steelers lucky · −35 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 4, Steelers win 6.

  1. 1 BAL 31 PIT 10
  2. 2 BAL 27 PIT 16
  3. 3 BAL 27 PIT 21
  4. 4 BAL 8 PIT 6
  5. 5 BAL 10 PIT 12
  6. 6 BAL 20 PIT 24
  7. 7 BAL 10 PIT 17
  8. 8 BAL 13 PIT 24
  9. 9 BAL 10 PIT 26
  10. 10 BAL 3 PIT 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 35% of them, Steelers 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+5.4%
Ravens by 9–169.4%
Ravens by 1–819.0%
Level after regulation2.0%
Steelers by 1–827.9%
Steelers by 9–1618.3%
Steelers by 17+18.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.8 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Ravens by 5.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 23 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. Boswell, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Boswell, 42 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 2 for 20 yards, Steelers 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 12:23 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Miles Killebrew), 10 yards +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 5:17 Defensive Holding on the Steelers (Minkah Fitzpatrick), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +1.3 pts
Q4 13:37 Offensive Holding on the Ravens (Patrick Ricard), 10 yards +4% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% PIT +1.4 pts
Q4 0:20 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Steelers (T.J. Watt), 15 yards +1% BAL +0.9 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:07 The Ravens converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% BAL BAL: Turnover on downs
2 Q2 0:19 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +12% PIT BAL: Punt
3 Q4 11:18 Blocked punt by the SteelersSpecial teams +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q4 9:52 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q4 4:10 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +10% PIT BAL: Turnover
6 Q4 3:28 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% PIT PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +15% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:12 The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +14% PIT BAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Dan Moore (PIT T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Pat Freiermuth (PIT TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • James Daniels (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Morgan Moses (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ar'Darius Washington (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyus Bowser (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Nick Moore (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 93% · Steelers 7%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
12.8 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 5.8
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 35% · Steelers 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Ravens · Steelers

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