luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Jaguars vs Bills, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Bills 25–20, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Bills were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:13 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Buffalo Bills 20

October 8, 2023 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Bills −5.5

Luck index +86 Jaguars very lucky · −86 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 37 BUF 29
  2. 2 JAX 35 BUF 37
  3. 3 JAX 24 BUF 28
  4. 4 JAX 20 BUF 27
  5. 5 JAX 20 BUF 30
  6. 6 JAX 23 BUF 37
  7. 7 JAX 17 BUF 34
  8. 8 JAX 10 BUF 30
  9. 9 JAX 19 BUF 45
  10. 10 JAX 13 BUF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 14% of them, Bills 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.4%
Jaguars by 9–163.7%
Jaguars by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation1.7%
Bills by 1–819.0%
Bills by 9–1620.7%
Bills by 17+46.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.7 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 5, without the luck Bills by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jaguars 8 for 56 yards, Bills 11 for 109 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:50 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q1 7:04 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 1 yard 0% JAX +0.1 pts
Q2 14:08 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 11:54 Illegal Contact on the Bills (Dorian Williams), 5 yards 0% JAX +0.3 pts
Q2 10:52 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 10:21 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 7 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 7:07 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +2.3 pts
Q3 13:46 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Montaric Brown), 5 yards +1% BUF +0.5 pts
Q3 13:34 False Start on the Jaguars, 3 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.8 pts
Q3 12:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 15 yards +7% JAX +2.4 pts
Q3 9:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills (Trent Sherfield), 10 yards 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q4 13:29 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +5% JAX +1.2 pts
Q4 11:00 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.0 pts
Q4 9:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 26 yards +7% JAX +2.1 pts
Q4 7:44 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% JAX +1.5 pts
Q4 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 5:23 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Chad Muma), 15 yards +2% BUF +1.8 pts
Q4 4:21 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 9 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +1.8 pts
Q4 4:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% JAX +3.1 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:19 J. Cook dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 36 catchable balls before this +7% JAX BUF: Punt
2 Q1 7:04 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 1 yardJudgment calls · 14 flags in 2787 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +6% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 4954 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +7% JAX JAX: Punt
4 Q3 7:12 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% JAX JAX: Turnover
5 Q3 5:40 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q4 13:16 The Bills threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +10% JAX BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 9:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 26 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 4112 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 14 flags in 4256 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +13% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Christian Benford (BUF CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Gregory Rousseau (BUF DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devin Lloyd (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 27% · Bills 73%

Final margin
Jaguars by 5
Luck in points
10.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 14% · Bills 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Jaguars · Bills

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