luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Cowboys at 49ers, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cowboys 42–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.6 points to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 9:57 left): Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 10
San Francisco 49ers 42

October 8, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3.5

Luck index +1 49ers about even · −1 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 DAL 35 SF 40
  2. 2 DAL 28 SF 40
  3. 3 DAL 26 SF 43
  4. 4 DAL 7 SF 27
  5. 5 DAL 16 SF 39
  6. 6 DAL 15 SF 41
  7. 7 DAL 19 SF 47
  8. 8 DAL 7 SF 38
  9. 9 DAL 12 SF 47
  10. 10 DAL 3 SF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 1% of them, 49ers 99%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+0.0%
Cowboys by 9–160.0%
Cowboys by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.2%
49ers by 1–81.8%
49ers by 9–166.3%
49ers by 17+91.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 32. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 32.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Face Mask on the Cowboys (Donovan Wilson), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 2631 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +5% SF SF: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:57 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% DAL SF: Punt
3 Q1 7:39 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% SF DAL: Punt
4 Q1 0:47 The Cowboys fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% SF DAL: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The 49ers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% DAL SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:51 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:57 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% DAL DAL: Turnover
8 Q3 9:36 The 49ers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Nahshon Wright (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 32
Luck in points
0.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 32.4
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 1% · 49ers 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Cowboys · 49ers

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