luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Texans at Falcons, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Texans 21–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:41 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 10, worth 15 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 19
Atlanta Falcons 21

October 8, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +41 Falcons lucky · −41 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 HOU 33 ATL 14
  2. 2 HOU 38 ATL 26
  3. 3 HOU 23 ATL 16
  4. 4 HOU 30 ATL 27
  5. 5 HOU 24 ATL 26
  6. 6 HOU 21 ATL 26
  7. 7 HOU 16 ATL 24
  8. 8 HOU 28 ATL 41
  9. 9 HOU 17 ATL 33
  10. 10 HOU 17 ATL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 41% of them, Falcons 59%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+7.3%
Texans by 9–1614.2%
Texans by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.3%
Falcons by 1–826.6%
Falcons by 9–1616.1%
Falcons by 17+14.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 2, without the luck Falcons by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • Y. Koo, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 5 for 25 yards, Falcons 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Tae Davis), 10 yards +1% HOU +0.8 pts
Q1 3:18 Encroachment on the Texans (Jonathan Greenard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q1 2:22 False Start on the Falcons (Tre Flowers), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.3 pts
Q2 14:10 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Kurt Hinish), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.4 pts
Q2 9:31 Encroachment on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.3 pts
Q2 8:09 False Start on the Falcons (Kyle Pitts), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.4 pts
Q2 2:49 Encroachment on the Texans (Khalil Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons, 15 yards +4% HOU +1.4 pts
Q2 0:52 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Jeff Okudah), 5 yards 0% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 0:23 Defensive Delay of Game on the Falcons (David Onyemata), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 5:48 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards +11% HOU +1.6 pts
Q4 0:47 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ATL +0.7 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 3:30 The Falcons converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q2 0:41 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +15% HOU HOU: Field goal
3 Q3 13:21 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% HOU HOU: Punt
4 Q3 11:01 The Falcons fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU ATL: Turnover
5 Q3 5:48 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yardsJudgment calls +11% HOU HOU: Punt
6 Q3 4:50 The Falcons fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:54 The Texans converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:02 Y. Koo made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Matt Hennessy (ATL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Christian Harris (HOU LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Charlie Heck (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Josh Jones (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 37% · Falcons 63%

Final margin
Falcons by 2
Luck in points
1.3 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Texans 41% · Falcons 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Texans · Falcons

More from Week 5 2023