luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Eagles at Rams, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Rams 23–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 8 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Rams.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:37 left): the Eagles converted 3rd & 9, worth 9 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 23
Los Angeles Rams 14

October 8, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +18 Eagles about even · −18 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Rams win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 27 LA 3
  2. 2 PHI 21 LA 3
  3. 3 PHI 23 LA 9
  4. 4 PHI 28 LA 17
  5. 5 PHI 16 LA 7
  6. 6 PHI 20 LA 13
  7. 7 PHI 24 LA 19
  8. 8 PHI 28 LA 26
  9. 9 PHI 21 LA 24
  10. 10 PHI 16 LA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 82% of them, Rams 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+26.7%
Eagles by 9–1625.0%
Eagles by 1–830.8%
Level after regulation1.8%
Rams by 1–810.8%
Rams by 9–164.0%
Rams by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 9, without the luck Eagles by 8.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 3 for 35 yards, Rams 5 for 48 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 0:17 Horse Collar Tackle on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 14 yards +6% PHI +1.5 pts
Q2 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 13 yards +8% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 15:00 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Rams, 5 yards +3% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 13:52 Face Mask on the Eagles (Zach Cunningham), 15 yards +4% LA +1.8 pts
Q3 11:23 Intentional Grounding on the Rams (Matthew Stafford), 11 yards +3% PHI +1.0 pts
Q3 7:04 Horse Collar Tackle on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 15 yards +9% LA +1.7 pts
Q4 6:21 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams, 5 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 6:21 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.7 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:10 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:04 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:56 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% PHI PHI: Punt
4 Q2 6:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% PHI PHI: Field goal
5 Q2 0:38 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 782 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:04 Horse Collar Tackle on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 717 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +9% LA LA: Punt
8 Q3 2:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 95% · Rams 5%

Final margin
Eagles by 9
Luck in points
0.4 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 8.6
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 82% · Rams 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Eagles · Rams

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