luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 8, 2023

Eagles at Rams, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Rams 23–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 9 of 10. The Rams had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Rams.

An off day for the Rams: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Eagles were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:38 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 10, worth 13 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 23
Los Angeles Rams 14

October 8, 2023 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −3.5

Luck index +8 Eagles about even · −8 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 9, Rams win 1.

  1. 1 PHI 34 LA 7
  2. 2 PHI 22 LA 0
  3. 3 PHI 24 LA 7
  4. 4 PHI 24 LA 10
  5. 5 PHI 34 LA 21
  6. 6 PHI 17 LA 7
  7. 7 PHI 16 LA 9
  8. 8 PHI 17 LA 13
  9. 9 PHI 9 LA 7
  10. 10 PHI 6 LA 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Rams

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Eagles they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

31 points apart for the Rams: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Eagles offenseEPA per play gained +0.31 +0.18 better by 0.13
Eagles defenseEPA per play allowed +0.07 +0.06 worse by 0.01
Rams offenseEPA per play gained +0.07 +0.08 worse by 0.01
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed +0.31 +0.09 worse by 0.23

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 92% of them, Rams 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+40.5%
Eagles by 9–1630.0%
Eagles by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation1.2%
Rams by 1–86.2%
Rams by 9–161.4%
Rams by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 6.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 34 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:05 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 2:04 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q2 6:37 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +9% PHI PHI: Field goal
4 Q2 0:38 The Rams converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +13% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Derion Kendrick), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 782 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:23 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Rams (Matthew Stafford), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 3683 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 +10% PHI LA: Punt
7 Q3 7:04 Horse Collar Tackle on the Eagles (Reed Blankenship), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 717 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +9% LA LA: Punt
8 Q3 2:12 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% PHI PHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joseph Noteboom (LA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 87% · Rams 13%

Final margin
Eagles by 9
Luck in points
2.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 6.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 92% · Rams 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Eagles · Rams

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