luckadjusted

Week 5 2023 · October 9, 2023

Packers at Raiders, Week 5 2023: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Packers 17–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10. The Packers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 7.0 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:51 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 44 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Green Bay Packers 13
Las Vegas Raiders 17

October 9, 2023 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +19 Raiders about even · −19 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 2, Raiders win 8.

  1. 1 GB 16 LV 2
  2. 2 GB 30 LV 27
  3. 3 GB 38 LV 41
  4. 4 GB 7 LV 12
  5. 5 GB 14 LV 22
  6. 6 GB 14 LV 24
  7. 7 GB 17 LV 31
  8. 8 GB 9 LV 27
  9. 9 GB 7 LV 29
  10. 10 GB 3 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 19% of them, Raiders 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+1.8%
Packers by 9–165.2%
Packers by 1–811.9%
Level after regulation2.4%
Raiders by 1–825.4%
Raiders by 9–1620.9%
Raiders by 17+32.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 6.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Carlson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 26 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 53 yds blocked · 74% expected
  • A. Carlson, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:02 The Raiders converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:12 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q4 7:57 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% GB LV: Punt
4 Q4 7:03 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Tucker Kraft), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 75 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +13% LV LV: Missed field goal
5 Q4 2:00 D. Carlson missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 36 of 45 from 45+ before +18% GB LV: End of game
6 Q4 0:59 R. Doubs dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 81 catchable balls before this +18% LV GB: Turnover
7 Q4 0:55 L. Musgrave dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 18 catchable balls before this +22% LV GB: Turnover
8 Q4 0:51 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Packers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +44% LV –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Nate Hobbs (LV CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jakorian Bennett (LV CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 9% · Raiders 91%

Final margin
Raiders by 4
Luck in points
2.8 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 19% · Raiders 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2023 games · Packers · Raiders

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