NFC North
Green Bay Packers: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Packers have won 76.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 73.5. Luck added 3.0 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+5.1 wins), the unluckiest 2025 (−2.9).
2026: 6–3 so far, replay wins 4.5 (+1.5 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6–3 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 3–1 | −0.85 | – |
| 2025 | 9–7–1 | 12.4 | −2.9 | 4–5–1 | +0.28 | 0–1 |
| 2024 | 11–6 | 12.5 | −1.5 | 5–5 | −0.28 | 0–1 |
| 2023 | 9–8 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 6–5 | +0.12 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 8–9 | 9.2 | −1.2 | 4–5 | +0.38 | – |
| 2021 | 13–4 | 11.1 | +1.9 | 6–3 | −0.11 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 13–3 | 11.5 | +1.5 | 4–2 | +0.84 | 1–1 |
| 2019 | 13–3 | 7.9 | +5.1 | 8–1 | +1.29 | 1–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −2.9 | +0.10 | −1.49 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.43 |
| 2024 | −1.5 | +0.16 | +0.37 | −0.57 | −0.14 | +0.21 | −0.43 |
| 2023 | +0.2 | +0.90 | +0.14 | +0.82 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.16 |
| 2022 | −1.2 | +0.28 | +0.35 | −0.69 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.14 |
| 2021 | +1.9 | +0.45 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.01 |
| 2020 | +1.5 | −0.45 | +0.19 | 0.00 | +0.42 | +0.21 | +0.17 |
| 2019 | +5.1 | −0.36 | +0.08 | 0.00 | +0.65 | +0.38 | +0.31 |
| Since 2019 | +3.0 | +1.08 | −0.38 | −0.37 | +1.26 | +0.88 | +0.50 |
Are the Packers lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Packers have won 76.5 regular-season games from play worth 73.5: +3.0 wins of luck, the 10th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Packers been so lucky?
Most of it came from judgment calls (+1.3 wins) and fumble bounces (+1.1 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 37–26–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 39.2 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Packers’ luckiest season?
2019: 13–3 from play worth 7.9 wins, +5.1 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2025: 9–7–1 from play worth 12.4 (−2.9).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Packers’ luckiest wins
Wins the Packers take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 5 | @ Cowboys | W 34–24 | 5% | +95 |
| 2021 Week 12 | vs Rams | W 36–28 | 23% | +77 |
| 2020 Week 1 | @ Vikings | W 43–34 | 30% | +70 |
| 2021 Week 8 | @ Cardinals | W 24–21 | 33% | +67 |
| 2019 Week 7 | vs Raiders | W 42–24 | 36% | +64 |
The Packers’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Packers would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 18 | vs Bears | L 22–24 | 99% | −99 |
| 2022 Week 7 | @ Commanders | L 21–23 | 92% | −92 |
| 2025 Week 15 | @ Broncos | L 26–34 | 92% | −92 |
| 2025 Week 3 | @ Browns | L 10–13 | 83% | −83 |
| 2024 Week 1 | vs Eagles | L 29–34 | 76% | −76 |
