luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Packers at Broncos, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Broncos stole one. They beat the Packers 34–26, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 3.1 points to the Broncos.

The Broncos won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Packers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:26 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 4, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 26
Denver Broncos 34

December 14, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Packers −1.5

Luck index +92 Broncos very lucky · −92 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Broncos win 1.

  1. 1 GB 48 DEN 14
  2. 2 GB 33 DEN 7
  3. 3 GB 35 DEN 13
  4. 4 GB 35 DEN 16
  5. 5 GB 26 DEN 10
  6. 6 GB 26 DEN 14
  7. 7 GB 45 DEN 35
  8. 8 GB 30 DEN 24
  9. 9 GB 26 DEN 24
  10. 10 GB 16 DEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Broncos won on an off day

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 52% of the time; with this day’s form, 8%.

44 points apart for the Broncos: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.19 worse by 0.03
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed +0.35 +0.07 worse by 0.28
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.35 +0.10 better by 0.25
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.01 worse by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 92% of them, Broncos 8%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+56.6%
Packers by 9–1620.2%
Packers by 1–815.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Broncos by 1–84.8%
Broncos by 9–162.1%
Broncos by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 10.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 37 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:46 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% GB DEN: Punt
2 Q2 8:26 The Broncos converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:30 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:35 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q3 7:17 The Packers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +13% GB GB: Punt
6 Q3 2:42 The Broncos got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +16% GB GB: Field goal
8 Q4 9:03 The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +14% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Pat Bryant (DEN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • J.K. Dobbins (DEN RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tucker Kraft (GB TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Devonte Wyatt (GB DL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 3% · Broncos 97%

Final margin
Broncos by 8
Luck in points
2.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Packers 92% · Broncos 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Packers · Broncos

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