luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 15, 2025

Dolphins at Steelers, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Dolphins 28–15 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.3 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:04 left): Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 15
Pittsburgh Steelers 28

December 15, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −3

Luck index +39 Steelers lucky · −39 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 4, Steelers win 6.

  1. 1 MIA 35 PIT 16
  2. 2 MIA 37 PIT 26
  3. 3 MIA 10 PIT 3
  4. 4 MIA 23 PIT 20
  5. 5 MIA 10 PIT 12
  6. 6 MIA 13 PIT 17
  7. 7 MIA 19 PIT 26
  8. 8 MIA 20 PIT 30
  9. 9 MIA 10 PIT 26
  10. 10 MIA 10 PIT 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 39% of them, Steelers 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+6.7%
Dolphins by 9–1611.8%
Dolphins by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation3.4%
Steelers by 1–827.9%
Steelers by 9–1616.2%
Steelers by 17+14.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 14.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:19 The Steelers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% PIT PIT: Punt
2 Q1 0:19 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% MIA PIT: Punt
3 Q2 11:04 Offensive Holding on the Steelers (Jonnu Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 22 flags in 4468 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 9:19 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% MIA PIT: Punt
5 Q2 7:46 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q2 5:34 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% PIT MIA: Field goal
7 Q2 0:21 The Steelers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q3 5:06 The Steelers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Broderick Jones (PIT T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • James Pierre (PIT CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrus Peat (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (PIT S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Derrick Harmon (PIT DT), out · 0.1 pts
  • Larry Borom (MIA OL), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 1% · Steelers 99%

Final margin
Steelers by 13
Luck in points
1.2 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 39% · Steelers 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Dolphins · Steelers

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