luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2025 NFL season · December 11, 2025–December 15

Week 15 2025: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Falcons beat the Buccaneers 29–28 in a game they win 34% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 15 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Falcons 29–28 @ Buccaneers 33% 34% Lucky
Chargers 16–13 @ Chiefs 34% 52% Coin flip
Vikings 34–26 @ Cowboys 34% 33% Lucky
Commanders 29–21 @ Giants 43% 58% Coin flip
Saints 20–17 vs Panthers 43% 71% Deserved
Broncos 34–26 vs Packers 46% 8% Lucky

Week 15 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Broncos W 34–26 vs Packers 8% +92
2 Vikings W 34–26 @ Cowboys 33% +67
3 Falcons W 29–28 @ Buccaneers 34% +66
4 Chargers W 16–13 @ Chiefs 52% +48
5 Commanders W 29–21 @ Giants 58% +42
6 Steelers W 28–15 vs Dolphins 62% +38
7 Bills W 35–31 @ Patriots 68% +32
8 Saints W 20–17 vs Panthers 71% +29
9 Rams W 41–34 vs Lions 85% +15
10 Ravens W 24–0 @ Bengals 85% +15
11 Seahawks W 18–16 vs Colts 86% +14
12 Texans W 40–20 vs Cardinals 89% +11
13 49ers W 37–24 vs Titans 95% +5
14 Bears W 31–3 vs Browns 99% +1
15 Jaguars W 48–20 vs Jets 99% +1
16 Eagles W 31–0 vs Raiders 100% 0
17 Raiders L 0–31 @ Eagles 0% 0
18 Jets L 20–48 @ Jaguars 1% −1
19 Browns L 3–31 @ Bears 1% −1
20 Titans L 24–37 @ 49ers 5% −5
21 Cardinals L 20–40 @ Texans 11% −11
22 Colts L 16–18 @ Seahawks 14% −14
23 Bengals L 0–24 vs Ravens 15% −15
24 Lions L 34–41 @ Rams 15% −15
25 Panthers L 17–20 @ Saints 29% −29
26 Patriots L 31–35 vs Bills 32% −32
27 Dolphins L 15–28 @ Steelers 38% −38
28 Giants L 21–29 vs Commanders 42% −42
29 Chiefs L 13–16 vs Chargers 48% −48
30 Buccaneers L 28–29 vs Falcons 66% −66
31 Cowboys L 26–34 vs Vikings 67% −67
32 Packers L 26–34 @ Broncos 92% −92