luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Cardinals at Texans, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Cardinals 40–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:41 left): Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 20
Houston Texans 40

December 14, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −10.5

Luck index +20 Texans about even · −20 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Texans win 8.

  1. 1 ARI 27 HOU 13
  2. 2 ARI 13 HOU 10
  3. 3 ARI 18 HOU 20
  4. 4 ARI 26 HOU 30
  5. 5 ARI 10 HOU 17
  6. 6 ARI 3 HOU 13
  7. 7 ARI 10 HOU 24
  8. 8 ARI 12 HOU 29
  9. 9 ARI 13 HOU 33
  10. 10 ARI 3 HOU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 20% of them, Texans 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.6%
Cardinals by 9–166.0%
Cardinals by 1–811.2%
Level after regulation2.3%
Texans by 1–827.1%
Texans by 9–1621.0%
Texans by 17+30.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 13.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds blocked · 73% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:11 The Cardinals fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% HOU ARI: Punt
2 Q1 7:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Garrett Williams), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1688 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:45 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:41 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% ARI ARI: Punt
5 Q2 9:05 K. Fairbairn made 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 54 of 76 from 45+ before +5% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q2 1:13 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +3% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:20 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +2% ARI ARI: Turnover
8 Q3 4:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +2% HOU HOU: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Settle (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 1% · Texans 99%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
6.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 20% · Texans 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Cardinals · Texans

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