luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Cardinals at Texans, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Cardinals 40–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Texans were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 13:41 left): Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 8 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 20
Houston Texans 40

December 14, 2025 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −10.5

Luck index +11 Texans about even · −11 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, Texans win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 30 HOU 23
  2. 2 ARI 17 HOU 20
  3. 3 ARI 15 HOU 20
  4. 4 ARI 30 HOU 37
  5. 5 ARI 13 HOU 23
  6. 6 ARI 10 HOU 22
  7. 7 ARI 6 HOU 21
  8. 8 ARI 17 HOU 35
  9. 9 ARI 0 HOU 22
  10. 10 ARI 13 HOU 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 11% of them, Texans 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.4%
Cardinals by 9–162.5%
Cardinals by 1–86.9%
Level after regulation1.7%
Texans by 1–818.4%
Texans by 9–1624.1%
Texans by 17+46.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.9 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 20, without the luck Texans by 13.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 55 yds made · 69% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 52 yds blocked · 72% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 2 for 34 yards, Texans 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Garrett Williams), 24 yards +4% HOU +1.9 pts
Q2 13:41 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +8% ARI +3.1 pts
Q2 11:18 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +2% ARI +1.1 pts
Q3 9:34 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% HOU +1.5 pts
Q3 6:22 Offensive Offside on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +1.3 pts
Q4 12:39 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Jalen Pitre), 5 yards +1% ARI +2.8 pts
Q4 11:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Derek Barnett), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.1 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:11 The Cardinals fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% HOU ARI: Punt
2 Q1 12:43 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +2% ARI HOU: Field goal
3 Q1 8:09 The Texans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +2% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Garrett Williams), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1688 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:45 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:41 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +8% ARI ARI: Punt
7 Q2 9:05 K. Fairbairn made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 54 of 76 from 45+ before +5% HOU HOU: Field goal
8 Q2 1:13 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • M.J. Stewart (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tim Settle (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jonah Williams (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Will Hernandez (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Evan Brown (ARI OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Max Melton (ARI CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zay Jones (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mack Wilson (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 1% · Texans 99%

Final margin
Texans by 20
Luck in points
6.9 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 11% · Texans 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Cardinals · Texans

More from Week 15 2025