luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Raiders at Eagles, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Raiders 31–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 82% favorites.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 0
Philadelphia Eagles 31

December 14, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −12.5

Luck index +1 Eagles about even · −1 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 0, Eagles win 10.

  1. 1 LV 17 PHI 20
  2. 2 LV 7 PHI 13
  3. 3 LV 7 PHI 16
  4. 4 LV 7 PHI 19
  5. 5 LV 13 PHI 27
  6. 6 LV 10 PHI 27
  7. 7 LV 3 PHI 22
  8. 8 LV 7 PHI 29
  9. 9 LV 3 PHI 28
  10. 10 LV 3 PHI 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 1% of them, Eagles 99%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+0.0%
Raiders by 9–160.1%
Raiders by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.1%
Eagles by 1–85.4%
Eagles by 9–1619.3%
Eagles by 17+74.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 31. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 22.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Eric Stokes), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 3087 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:51 The Eagles converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:42 B. Bowers dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 179 catchable balls before this +4% PHI LV: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 3:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Cooper DeJean), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 2063 snaps before, position avg 1 per 244 +5% LV LV: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 1:19 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% PHI LV: Punt
6 Q2 14:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Darien Porter), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 502 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +4% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q2 12:53 J. Elliott made 27-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +4% LV PHI: Punt
8 Q3 11:24 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedThe Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% PHI LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jalen Carter (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
  • Andrew Mukuba (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Geno Smith (LV QB), out, replaced by k.pickett · 3.0 pts
  • Jordan Meredith (LV C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kyu Blu Kelly (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jackson Powers-Johnson (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 0% · Eagles 100%

Final margin
Eagles by 31
Luck in points
8.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 22.2
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 1% · Eagles 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Raiders · Eagles

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