luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Titans at 49ers, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Titans 37–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 82% favorites.

Final

Tennessee Titans 24
San Francisco 49ers 37

December 14, 2025 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −12.5

Luck index +11 49ers about even · −11 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, 49ers win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 23 SF 17
  2. 2 TEN 28 SF 30
  3. 3 TEN 13 SF 17
  4. 4 TEN 16 SF 23
  5. 5 TEN 3 SF 13
  6. 6 TEN 7 SF 20
  7. 7 TEN 14 SF 30
  8. 8 TEN 6 SF 24
  9. 9 TEN 7 SF 30
  10. 10 TEN 13 SF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 11% of them, 49ers 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.6%
Titans by 9–162.0%
Titans by 1–88.2%
Level after regulation1.2%
49ers by 1–820.8%
49ers by 9–1626.3%
49ers by 17+40.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Slye, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • E. Pineiro, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:54 T. Pollard dropped a catchable passDrops · 14 drops on 194 catchable balls before this +5% SF TEN: Punt
2 Q1 14:07 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% SF TEN: Punt
3 Q1 7:54 The 49ers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% SF SF: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:09 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% SF TEN: Field goal
5 Q1 0:39 The 49ers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:56 The 49ers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% SF SF: Field goal
7 Q2 0:32 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +6% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
8 Q2 0:02 J. Slye missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 55 of 82 from 45+ before +4% SF TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mykel Williams (SF DL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Okuayinonu (SF DL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Tatum Bethune (SF LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • L'Jarius Sneed (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jalyn Armour-Davis (TEN CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 44% · 49ers 56%

Final margin
49ers by 13
Luck in points
13.4 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 11% · 49ers 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Titans · 49ers

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