luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Browns at Bears, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Browns 31–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: drops alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Bears were 71% favorites.

Final

Cleveland Browns 3
Chicago Bears 31

December 14, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −7.5

Luck index +1 Bears about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Bears win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 20 CHI 23
  2. 2 CLE 16 CHI 23
  3. 3 CLE 7 CHI 19
  4. 4 CLE 13 CHI 27
  5. 5 CLE 7 CHI 24
  6. 6 CLE 3 CHI 23
  7. 7 CLE 6 CHI 30
  8. 8 CLE 13 CHI 40
  9. 9 CLE 0 CHI 33
  10. 10 CLE 3 CHI 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Bears 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.1%
Browns by 1–81.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Bears by 1–83.1%
Bears by 9–169.0%
Bears by 17+86.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to the Browns: the final margin was Bears by 28, without the luck Bears by 38.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 35 yds missed · 93% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • C. Santos, 41 yds made · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 21 yards, Bears 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:45 False Start on the Bears (D.J. Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q1 13:48 False Start on the Browns (Harold Fannin), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% CHI 0.0 pts
Q1 13:09 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CHI +0.2 pts
Q1 10:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CHI +0.4 pts
Q1 7:28 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.6 pts
Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Durham Smythe), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CLE +2.5 pts
Q2 1:10 False Start on the Browns (Gage Larvadain), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CHI +0.5 pts
Q3 9:57 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q3 4:34 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Sam Webb), 5 yards 0% CLE +0.7 pts
Q4 12:47 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.7 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2025

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:05 K. Monangai dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 14 catchable balls before this +7% CLE CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:14 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% CHI CLE: Punt
3 Q1 10:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 35 flags in 5860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Durham Smythe), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 5052 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +3% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q2 4:45 C. Santos missed a 35-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +3% CLE CHI: Punt
6 Q2 4:30 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q2 0:28 The Bears got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +3% CHI CHI: End of half
8 Q3 12:20 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +3% CLE CHI: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rome Odunze (CHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 28
Luck in points
10.3 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 38.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Bears 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Browns · Bears

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