luckadjusted

Week 15 2025 · December 14, 2025

Browns at Bears, Week 15 2025: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Browns 31–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bears win 10 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: drops alone were worth 8.2 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Bears were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:05 left): K. Monangai dropped a catchable pass, worth 8 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 3
Chicago Bears 31

December 14, 2025 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Bears −7.5

Luck index +1 Bears about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Bears win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 10 CHI 13
  2. 2 CLE 20 CHI 27
  3. 3 CLE 7 CHI 18
  4. 4 CLE 6 CHI 20
  5. 5 CLE 17 CHI 34
  6. 6 CLE 10 CHI 30
  7. 7 CLE 3 CHI 27
  8. 8 CLE 10 CHI 37
  9. 9 CLE 10 CHI 41
  10. 10 CLE 3 CHI 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Bears 99%. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.2%
Browns by 1–81.1%
Level after regulation0.2%
Bears by 1–84.3%
Bears by 9–1611.1%
Bears by 17+83.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bears by 40.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 35 yds missed · 92% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 50 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Santos, 41 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:05 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedK. Monangai dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 14 catchable balls before this +8% CLE CHI: Punt
2 Q1 12:14 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% CHI CLE: Punt
3 Q1 10:37 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 35 flags in 5860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 304 +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:35 The Bears converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Bears (Durham Smythe), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 11 flags in 5052 snaps before, position avg 1 per 278 +3% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q2 4:30 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q3 12:20 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% CLE CHI: Punt
8 Q3 5:52 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 54% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +4% CHI CLE: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rome Odunze (CHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kyler Gordon (CHI DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dayo Odeyingbo (CHI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out · 0.9 pts
  • David Njoku (CLE TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (CLE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Maliek Collins (CLE DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Bears 100%

Final margin
Bears by 28
Luck in points
12.2 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 40.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Bears 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 15 2025 games · Browns · Bears

More from Week 15 2025